Mavericks keep ignoring the one move their future depends on

Good: The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers behind a 27-point, 10-assist outing from Cooper Flagg, alongside impressive performances from both Naji Marshall and P. J. Washington to end the weekend.

Bad: The Mavericks won. They're now a full game behind the New Orleans Pelicans for sixth place in the lottery standings and just one game ahead of the reeling Memphis Grizzlies in eighth.

While a regular-season win isn’t all that bad in the short term, it shines a light on the bigger picture: draft positioning. But this draft means even more for the Mavericks. Why? Because Dallas’ 2026 first-round pick is the only one the team fully controls until 2031.

The Dallas Mavericks' future draft control is limited

The Mavericks do have several first-round picks between now and the next five years, but the stipulations are complicated: the Oklahoma City Thunder hold the rights to swap with Dallas’ 2028 first-round pick; the Houston Rockets hold swap rights to Dallas’ 2029 first-rounder; another 2029 first-round pick comes via the Los Angeles Lakers; and the San Antonio Spurs hold the rights to the most favorable of Dallas’ and their own 2030 first-round picks.

In short, the Mavericks won’t control much of their draft capital for the next several years. The lone exception is their 2026 first-round pick, which they still control over the final month of the season before April’s finish. Because of that, the Mavericks’ most obvious strategy, tanking, should be far more pressing than it currently appears.

Just a few days ago, the Mavericks jumped the Pelicans for sixth in the draft order. Since then, Dallas has slipped back behind New Orleans, with the Grizzlies rapidly closing the gap. The Mavericks are 2–1 in their last three games, while Memphis is 0–3 during that stretch and has dropped seven straight.

Tanking is not only obvious but urgent

There isn’t a realistic path for the Mavericks to sneak into the top four, but finishing fifth, or more likely sixth, in the draft order remains a real possibility. So far, Dallas seems content to squander it.

If the Mavericks somehow finish fifth, they’d have a 42.1 percent chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5 percent shot at No. 1. Those odds drop to 37.2 percent and 9.0 percent if they finish sixth, and 32.0 percent and 7.5 percent if they fall to seventh.

It’s not a monumental drop, but why risk lower odds when the season no longer matters?

Dallas’ most promising talent, Cooper Flagg, has already received plenty of reps and looks the part. The Mavericks have uncovered a few hidden gems worthy of long-term roles in Brandon Williams and Ryan Nembhard, and several veterans have improved their stock after slow starts to the season, including Daniel Gafford and Khris Middleton. Now, it’s time to implement strategies that maximize the chance of losing games, rather than continuing to get the best out of players.

The message is simple: the Mavericks’ clearest path forward is staring them in the face, and the clock is ticking. With so few draft assets under their control and a 2026 first-round pick that can still be leveraged, the team can’t afford to treat the end of the season casually.