Mavericks' perfect draft plan for Cooper Flagg crumbles with every win

The Dallas Mavericks improved to 22-44 after last night's road victory over the Memphis Grizzlies, but wins don't come with the same excitement that they usually do at this time of year for Dallas. The majority of Mavericks fans are pushing for the team to tank with 16 games remaining in the regular season to help them secure better odds to secure a high draft pick, but they've shown no signs of wanting to do that.

Jason Kidd is playing his starters into the fourth quarter while his young players, who need to develop, sit on the sidelines. Last night in particular, Ryan Nembhard and AJ Johnson, two of Dallas' youngsters who need to develop as much as anyone, played just 15 minutes combined.

You can't blame Kidd for how the Mavericks are handling this time, as he's just doing his job and trying to get the most out of his guys and doing what he's told, but the front office may need to look at the bigger picture soon.

Dallas' top brass has already begun to focus on the draft and future, as both Michael Finley and Matt Riccardi have been out scouting recently, and the team's play on the court may need to follow suit soon.

Dallas needs to prioritize development rather than winning

Nembhard rejoined the rotation for the last two games and played 13 minutes last night after being sent to the end of the bench in some of the most recent games, and Johnson's two minutes came when the game was already out of reach. Sprinkling in minutes for Johnson throughout the game would not only help Dallas' tank, but it would also help his development ahead of his third season.

The Mavericks need to find out if he has any future with the team before this offseason, and refusing to play him at all doesn't allow them to do that.

Even Cooper Flagg could use some more development at this time of year. His growth should be the team's No. 1 focus to end this season, and the situation that he's currently in doesn't seem to be optimizing that.

Flagg hasn't been playing with a point guard as much as usual recently (the Grizzlies game saw him share the floor with Nembhard and Williams more than lately, though), and last night in the clutch, he was an afterthought. He only attempted three shots in the fourth quarter, which is the fewest field goal attempts that he has shot in a fourth quarter of a game since January 24.

Instead, Khris Middleton finished with 35 points last night while shooting 8-10 from beyond the arc. 22 of these points came in the fourth quarter, and he made all five of his 3-point attempts in this final quarter.

Middleton is playing himself into a new contract in Dallas, or a lucrative one elsewhere, with the way that he's been playing, but the Mavericks don't have anything else to see out of him in this lost season. He has already proven that he can be a valuable piece off the bench moving forward, and if Dallas had already started tanking, he likely would've been pulled after starting the fourth quarter so hot.

Mavericks are not tanking despite popular belief

Despite losing 18 of the last 21 games, the Mavericks have shown no signs of tanking. Dallas is trying to win every game they play, and while this is normal for them in March most of the time, it's the last thing they need to be doing due to their position in the jam-packed lottery standings.

A win now and then is good for morale, especially when they haven't been winning much to begin with, but the price that comes with it may not be worth it in the end.

A few years from now, no one is going to be looking back and talking about how a couple of wins in March and April set the Mavericks up for the future. They have the chance to form a deadly one-two punch and pair Cooper Flagg with a star rookie if they play their cards right down the final stretch, and unfortunately for Dallas, losing gives them the best chance to do this.

Winning could derail the genesis of the Cooper Flagg era

After the Mavericks' 120-112 win over the Grizzlies last night, they went from being tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for sixth-best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick down to No. 7 in the lottery standings. A loss to the struggling Memphis squad would've put Dallas just one game behind the Utah Jazz and the fifth-best odds, but now they're behind the Pelicans once again.

New Orleans still has a good chance to pass Dallas since the Pelicans have no incentive to tank, but things will get extremely interesting between these two teams next week. Monday's game against New Orleans is one of the most important games of the year for Dallas, and a win for the Mavericks could make the No. 6 spot (and especially the fifth spot occupied by the Jazz) unattainable for Kidd's squad.

On top of Dallas' proximity to Utah and New Orleans in front of them in the lottery standings, the Grizzlies are quietly creeping up behind them. With last night's loss, Memphis is just 1.5 games behind the Mavericks and the seventh-best odds.

Dallas going from sixth to eighth in such a short amount of time would be devastating for their odds, as their chances of landing in the top four would go from over 37.2 percent down to 26.3 percent.

Not ideal for a team that desperately needs to draft a co-star for Cooper Flagg.

Why tanking (unfortunately) is the best route forward for Dallas

The 2026 NBA Draft class is special, and that's why so many fans are pushing for the team to start its tank. Landing in the top three, or even the top four, would give the Mavericks the perfect chance to draft Flagg's running mate. Someone like Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, or AJ Dybantsa would ensure that Dallas is in good hands for years to come.

But, naturally, the lower that they fall in the lottery standings, the less likely this opportunity becomes.

This is the Mavericks' one chance to tank to find Flagg a running mate, as they don't fully control their first-round pick again until 2031. Beginning next year, Dallas will be in a full-speed push to return to the playoffs, as the Charlotte Hornets own their 2027 first-round pick.

On top of this, Adam Silver will surely change the rules around tanking beginning next season.

Opportunities like this don't happen often, and as much as it would hurt in the present, the future benefits of beginning their tank outweigh the cons.

The basketball gods blessed the Mavericks for not tanking last year, as they landed the No. 1 overall pick (which turned into Cooper Flagg) despite having just a 1.8 percent chance to do this. They're not always this kind, and unless an order comes down from the front office, Dallas could stumble into some more wins to end this season due to how talented their roster is.