Mavericks' top free agent hides a glaring red flag Dallas can't afford to ignore

23.2 percent. No, that's not the Dallas Mavericks’ odds at landing a top-four pick, but Brandon Williams’ 3-point percentage. It’s the one flaw overshadowing his breakout season, and it could shape whether Dallas brings him back.

Brandon Williams’ rise with the Mavericks

Williams’ rise in Dallas hasn’t been linear. After going undrafted and appearing in 24 games with the Portland Trail Blazers as a rookie, he joined the Mavericks on a two-way deal in 2023. A G League stint and multiple two-way contracts later, he finally earned a standard deal in April 2025.

Entering the 2025–26 season, Dallas turned to a point-guard-by-committee approach after trading Luka Doncic and losing Kyrie Irving to a torn ACL. That opened the door for Williams, who was suddenly at the top of the depth chart.

Even as Jason Kidd raised eyebrows by initially starting rookie forward Cooper Flagg at point guard, Williams still carved out a key role. He averaged 23.9 minutes in November, starting nine games (after the Flagg-at-point-guard experiment ended) and posting 11.9 points and 4.5 assists in the first full month of the season.

From there, he only improved. During a strong January stretch for the Mavericks, Williams averaged 15.3 points on 54.5 percent shooting. But one flaw never went away. Despite his absurd efficiency as a 6-foot-1 guard, he shot just 29.2 percent from three.

Three-point inefficiency has plagued Williams

Williams is averaging 13.0 points on 47.2 percent shooting, drawing 4.6 free throws per game, but his 23.2 percent mark from three is a glaring weakness. As an undersized guard who struggles from deep, projecting his career trajectory is difficult, even with his skill as a crafty downhill attacker.

At 6-foot-1, Williams shoots 51.6 percent on drives and gets 2.4 free throws per game, both better even than Flagg, even with nearly two fewer attempts. In transition, he adds 3.5 points on 2.8 possessions per game, converting 60.3 percent of those chances.

Williams is exceptional in his strengths, but even his easiest shots from deep rarely fall. He’s shooting just 21.6 percent on wide-open threes and 23.5 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts. Not promising, especially since he actually shoots better off the dribble.

Of course, some players shoot better in rhythm, and Williams is clearly one of them. Still, it would be at least promising if he were making roughly a quarter of his wide-open threes. It’s not that his shots look bad or that he’s uncomfortable — he just lacks touch from deep.

Dallas faces a tough free agency decision on Williams

Knowing this, giving Williams a long-term contract in free agency is certainly worrisome. Dallas is already the NBA’s worst team in wide-open three-point shooting, and its best player is connecting on just 29.7 percent of his threes. That means a lineup of Williams, Flagg, and whoever fills the center spot would be woefully ineffective from deep, no matter who else steps in.

While the Flagg-Williams duo has shown promise in Mavericks lineups, one season is a small sample. With 140 games of Williams to evaluate, Dallas faces a tough decision, one that will hinge on his fit, which ultimately comes down to his three-point shooting.