Mavericks' massive elephant in the room won’t stop getting worse

Following a victory over the Memphis Grizzlies that snapped their eight-game losing streak, the Dallas Mavericks turned around and suffered a 138–105 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Cleveland is clearly the more talented team, one offensive statistic stood out once again. One that, if improved, could give the Mavericks a much better chance of winning.

The Cavaliers shot 47.4 percent from three-point range, compared to the Mavericks’ 27.3 percent. As a result, despite attempting only five more threes (38 to 33), Cleveland scored 27 more points from beyond the arc.

Three-point shooting defines the Mavericks’ struggles

Dallas’ inability to consistently knock down threes has been a theme all season, and the trend is only getting worse. Since December, the Mavericks’ three-point percentage has declined month by month, bottoming out at 31.6 percent in March.

On the year, the Mavericks rank 28th in three-point percentage (33.9), 29th in makes (10.6 per game), and 28th in attempts (31.2). While three-point shooting alone doesn’t determine wins and losses, even a modest bump of a few percentage points would dramatically improve Dallas’ offensive outlook.

For instance, in wins the Mavericks have shot 37.6 percent from beyond the arc, compared to 32.2 percent in losses, despite taking more attempts in those losses. Naturally, higher efficiency tends to lead to more victories, but it’s also notable that when Dallas is forced to rely less on the three-point shot, the results have generally been better.

Then again, one could argue that in losses, teams tend to hoist more threes in an attempt to mount a comeback. While that theory is plausible, the data doesn’t strongly support it. Some of the league’s best teams, such as the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks, actually attempt fewer three-pointers per game in losses.

Dallas can’t even make wide-open threes

Thus, it’s not simply a matter of whether Dallas is playing from ahead or behind. The strongest correlation may be the most obvious one: the Mavericks don’t have many reliable shooters. While that observation may seem self-evident, the numbers reinforce it. Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in wide-open three-point percentage at 34.5 percent, a statistic that strongly supports that conclusion.

Moreover, the Mavs are the only team in the NBA shooting under 35.0 percent on wide-open (6+ feet) threes this season. Strangely enough, Dallas has been league-average or better on open (4–6 feet) and tight (2–4 feet) three-point attempts.

Even though Dallas ranks 30th in the NBA in open three-point attempts, it’s not as if those opportunities would be falling at a high rate anyway. That makes the issue even more concerning. Dallas’ inability to convert wide-open threes is a major offensive limitation, particularly for a team built around a downhill attacking star who thrives on collapsing defenses.

The Mavericks’ struggles from deep aren’t just a statistical quirk… they’re the elephant in the room that keeps growing larger with every loss. From a league-low rate of wide-open makes to a season-long decline in three-point efficiency, Dallas’ lack of reliable shooters cramps any form of offensive improvement. Until that weakness is addressed, no amount of playmaking, downhill drives, or defensive adjustments will be enough to turn flip losses into wins.