Mavericks' once-popular Dereck Lively II trade is turning into a loss for Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks’ decision to trade down two spots, dump Davis Bertans’ salary, and select Dereck Lively II in the 2023 NBA Draft was initially viewed as a major win for the franchise. After all, Dallas only had to part with the No. 10 overall pick, which became Cason Wallace.

Cason Wallace solidified as a key two-way contributor for Thunder

Three years later, however, the trade is beginning to look far more favorable for the Oklahoma City Thunder and a loss for the Mavericks. Wallace has emerged as a key contributor for a team on the verge of a second straight NBA Finals appearance, while Lively has appeared in just 98 games during his three-year NBA career.

In Oklahoma City’s 118-91 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, Wallace still managed to make his presence felt. The former No. 10 overall pick finished with 11 points, three rebounds, and three steals in just 20 minutes while shooting 4-of-6 from the field and 3-of-4 from beyond the arc.

He also spent much of the night defending San Antonio’s talented trio of guards — De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle — further showcasing the two-way impact Dallas gave up in the 2023 draft-night trade.

Mavericks’ 2023 NBA Draft trade originally viewed as a steal

At the time of the 2023 NBA Draft, Dallas didn’t necessarily need another guard. The Mavericks had already traded for Kyrie Irving months earlier and still had Luka Doncic leading the backcourt. Jaden Hardy and Josh Green were viewed as promising young pieces, while Tim Hardaway Jr. remained a reliable veteran option on the wing.

With that in mind, selecting Lively II appeared to be the right move.

Ironically, three years later, Irving is the only player remaining from that group, and he didn’t suit up for a single game last season while recovering from a torn ACL.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ frontcourt has strengthened considerably since the 2023 draft, but its backcourt has deteriorated. Just last season, the Mavericks were relying on a pair of former undrafted free agents at point guard.

Wallace, on the other hand, has become more of a luxury for the talent-rich Thunder. During the regular season, he averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.9 steals in 26.6 minutes per game, earning All-Defensive Second-Team honors in the process and leading the league in total steals.

Yet there’s even likely still untapped offensive potential in Wallace’s game. His 14.5 usage percentage ranked merely 149th among 165 qualified players, a reflection of both Oklahoma City’s depth and his willingness to thrive in more of a complementary role.

The same can be said for Lively II, who has shown flashes of exciting potential. However, injuries have significantly limited his ability to build on that promise.

Dereck Lively II injury concerns and the Mavericks’ long-term questions

While Lively II has appeared in just 98 games during his NBA career, Wallace has already played in 227 contests — the second-most among players from the 2023 draft class. He’s also already logged 47 playoff appearances for a Thunder team competing deep into the postseason each year.

What initially seemed like a home-run trade for the Mavericks has become far more complicated three years later. While Dallas selected one of the highest-upside players in the 2023 NBA Draft in Lively II, Wallace has emerged as the more valuable option given his durability, versatility, and immediate impact on a contender.

That isn’t to say Wallace is definitively the better player long term. However, there’s little doubt the Mavericks would welcome his reliability and two-way versatility at this stage of the franchise’s rebuild.

There’s still a chance Lively II returns healthy and develops into the impact player Dallas envisioned when it selected him in 2023. If that happens, the narrative surrounding this trade could shift once again.

However, the 7-foot-1 center has already dealt with multiple lower-body injuries early in his career, including several procedures involving his right foot — a troubling trend for any big man. Meanwhile, Wallace has continued to establish himself as a durable, versatile contributor for one of the NBA’s top contenders.

At this point, it’s fair to wonder whether Dallas would feel far more secure about its long-term backcourt outlook had it simply stayed put and nabbed Wallace instead, as Lively II's career has been far more underwhelming than expected.

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