Mavericks must make this Dereck Lively II move before his career implodes

The Dallas Mavericks selected Dereck Lively II with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft after trading down with the Oklahoma City Thunder, sending the 10th pick (Cason Wallace) and Davis Bertans in the deal. Three seasons into their respective careers, Wallace has appeared in 227 games, while Lively has played in 98. The comparison isn’t even perfectly aligned, but it underscores Lively’s biggest early-career challenge: availability.

Dereck Lively II's highly impactful, but rarely available

With that in mind, and three years of evidence to evaluate, Dallas must take into account Lively’s injury history and do the right thing. And that “right thing” is adding a starting-caliber center who can stay reliable in his own right. And before we go too far, no… that’s not Daniel Gafford.

Lively, first and foremost, has been awesome when healthy. He hasn’t posted eye-popping numbers, averaging 8.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.5 blocks across 98 appearances, but his impact has been undeniable.

He’s graded out in the 75th percentile or better in on/off impact metrics in his first three seasons. As a rookie, Dallas was 4.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and that number jumped to 11.7 points per 100 possessions in 2024–25. Moreover, while it’s difficult to quantify Lively’s value over a full season, he's finished inside the top 30 in win shares per 36 minutes in two of his first three campaigns.

The Robert Williams III parallel

It would be a revelation if Lively were capable of playing even three-quarters of a season, but that hasn’t been the case so far, which makes the Mavericks’ need for a reliable starting center even more pressing. In that sense, his trajectory is beginning to resemble Robert Williams III’s career path.

Williams himself appeared in just 113 games through his first three seasons. Injuries took their toll, but he was still highly effective, averaging a double-double per 36 minutes in each of his first three campaigns. However, unlike Lively, Williams wasn’t as impactful on his team's success and didn’t play as prominent a role, though the appeal was still evident.

The Boston Celtics inserted Williams into a full-time starting role in 2021–22, and he responded with a career year, appearing in 61 games and earning NBA All-Defensive Second Team honors. However, he managed just 35 appearances the following season before being traded in 2023. He then appeared in only 26 games across his first two seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers.

However, this past season, Williams appeared in 59 games for Portland, averaging 17.1 minutes per contest. In the playoffs, he has taken on a larger role, averaging 20.0 minutes per game while posting 11.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.0 blocks across two contests. Williams may no longer carry the label of a perennial All-Defensive team candidate, but he has remained an impactful piece for a playoff team, even in a limited role.

Why Dallas needs a reliable starting center

This is a path Dallas should envision for Lively. There is still hope that he develops into a borderline All-Star or even an All-Defensive caliber player. He’s still only 22 years old, for crying out loud. But at this point, he may be best utilized as a reserve who sees an uptick in minutes in meaningful games.

The Blazers can rely on Donovan Clingan as their starting big, with the former UConn standout averaging steady availability across his first two seasons. The Mavericks, meanwhile, already have Gafford, a solid center in his own right, but he has averaged just 56 games over the past two years, making him a less dependable complement to Lively and not quite the proper yin to his yang.

This isn’t to say the Mavericks need to go out and find a Clingan (that’s not easy to do), but finding a center who can consistently play around 65 games per season is a worthwhile investment as Lively navigates a tumultuous start to his career.

Again, not all hope is lost with Lively. He’s proven effective and profiles as the ideal modern rim-running big man in today’s NBA. But his injury history suggests Dallas needs to prioritize a starting-caliber center who can stay available whenever Lively is unavailable.

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