Mavericks made the right gamble by not extending Dereck Lively II

The Dallas Mavericks missed the rookie-scale extension deadline for Dereck Lively II, meaning Lively will become a restricted free agent next summer. As promising a young center as Lively is, this was undoubtedly the right move due to his inability to stay healthy thus far in his career, as the Mavericks will have to be patient with him to reach his ceiling.

Lively appeared in just 36 games in the 2024-25 season and played seven games last season. He’s dealt with lingering complications from a stress fracture in his foot suffered back in late 2024, as Dallas’ medical staff initially misdiagnosed the injury. He then had to get surgery on the same right foot early last season, and still isn’t healthy to start this season.

Mavs are smart to wait until free agency to work out a deal with Lively

Lively’s potential is undeniable; he was arguably the best defensive center in the playoffs during his rookie season, and he’s already a solid finisher, rebounder, and can make quick decisions in the short roll. His ability to guard out in space at 7-foot-1 lends him All-Defensive Team potential, and he’s the type of player who could land a max contract in the future if he can actually stay healthy.

The reason Dallas is making the right move by not extending him this early is that they’ll have the ability to match any offer sheet another team could offer him in his upcoming restricted free agency. In the new CBA, teams have rarely been able to pry away restricted free agents anymore, as teams are prioritizing the draft and trades as a means to upgrade their roster over clearing a bunch of cap space to land a big fish.

This isn’t to say some bottom-feeder like the Sacramento Kings with cap space could lure away Lively with a massive offer sheet next summer, but if he has a prolific season and stays healthy, the Mavericks would be more than inclined to give him the bag, as he's the best center on the roster when fully dialed in and healthy.

This is where the gamble comes into play, as he could become much more expensive if he stays on the court and has a productive season. If he looks like a rising star once he gets healthy, Dallas may regret not locking him up before he hits free agency for the first time in his career.

Lively still has the potential to become a key piece of Dallas' future

Despite his health woes, Lively probably has the most potential out of any of Dallas’ young players not named Cooper Flagg. By Dallas not giving him an extension this early, this isn’t a concession that they don’t want him or are no longer prioritizing him, but rather a means of giving them assurance should he continue to struggle with lower-body injuries.

There’s an argument to be made that Lively’s playstyle doesn’t bode well for him staying healthy, as he’s very springy at his height and plays all out, and he tends to crash the floor and end up in messy situations in the restricted area on occasion. Adding lower-body strength undoubtedly needs to be a priority for him, and based on how he looks and how seriously he’s taken his rehab, it seems like he’s definitely working on becoming more stout.

The door isn’t closed on Lively becoming a centerpiece of Dallas’ young core alongside Flagg, and he could very well still become a future All-Star, but Dallas made the right gamble not to extend him.

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