Mavericks' Dereck Lively II extension talks point to an unnecessary gamble

The Dallas Mavericks roster is slowly coming together under the watchful eye of recently appointed team president Masai Ujiri. Ujiri has clearly prioritized his ideal archetypes — long, rangy athletes — while constructing the Mavericks' revamped roster, and he's not straying from that vision.

Ujiri is continuing to prioritize that archetype, as Marc Stein recently reported that the Dallas Mavericks and center Dereck Lively II are in the early stages of contract extension talks. Yet, while Lively II is an important asset, committing significant money to him now comes with an unnecessary gamble: his availability.

The Mavericks would be making a bet they don't need to make by giving Lively II an extension now, and counting on his health isn't the best idea after seeing how his first few years in the NBA have gone.

Mavericks can't ignore the biggest concern surrounding Lively II

Across three seasons, Lively II has appeared in just 98 contests. He played in 55 games as a rookie, 36 in his second season, and merely seven a season ago. Perhaps most concerning, it's been lower-extremity injuries that have repeatedly kept him off the floor. For a 7-foot-1 big man, that's a true worst-case scenario.

Dallas entering contract extension talks with the 22-year-old feels far too premature. The Mavericks would be taking an unnecessary gamble by committing to Lively II before he proves he can stay healthy. Why lock him in now when availability remains his biggest concern?

Of course, two things need to be clarified. First, Stein didn't outright report that the Mavericks are working to extend Lively II. Instead, they're only in the "early stages" of those discussions. Second, it's not Lively II's fault he's been injured. Some of the blame can be placed on the Mavericks following the controversial handling of his stress fracture from his second season, which even became a larger organizational issue.

Dallas can afford to let Lively II prove himself first

Nonetheless, regardless of the external factors, it's obvious Dallas must proceed with caution before handing Lively II an extension. In theory, Lively II is a terrific piece to the Mavericks' long-term puzzle and could be the answer at center for years to come. He's still only 22, so he fits perfectly with Dallas' timeline, and he's shown tremendous potential when healthy.

Still, with Lively II's short-term and long-term availability remaining such a pressing question, it's clearly in the Mavericks' best interest to wait it out. The 22-year-old still has a year left on his contract, and even after the 2026-27 season, he'll become a restricted free agent. Dallas has almost all of the leverage here.

Just look at fellow centers Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren's restricted free agencies.

Mavericks hold the cards in Lively II's extension situation

Kessler, like Lively II, played in single-digit games a season ago. However, with multiple productive seasons before that and a less concerning injury history, Kessler received a massive four-year, $130 million contract from the Los Angeles Lakers through a sign-and-trade with the Utah Jazz.

Even though Utah didn't retain Kessler, they still landed two unprotected first-round picks and two pick swaps in the deal. That's a significant return, especially for a team that didn't commit to a lucrative long-term extension.

Meanwhile, Duren, who made the All-Star team and earned All-NBA Third Team honors, remains unsigned. The Detroit Pistons displayed patience, and they've come out as winners because of it. With cap space drying up around the league, Detroit now holds most of the leverage. Ultimately, Duren either accepts his $9.6 million qualifying offer or will likely have to negotiate a more favorable deal with the Pistons.

Following in the Jazz and Pistons' footsteps would be a savvy move for the Mavericks rather than rushing into contract negotiations. If Dallas doesn't extend Lively II, big whoop. The Mavericks get a test season to see if he's fully recovered from a serious surgery and can stay healthy. Even if he excels next season, Dallas will still hold most of the leverage considering he'll be a restricted free agent.

Dallas entering extension talks with Lively II creates an unnecessary gamble. Taking a "wait and see" approach with the 22-year-old big man is far wiser, allowing the Mavericks to evaluate his health while maintaining control of his future. Ultimately, patience is the route Dallas needs to take.

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