Mavericks emerge as massive losers ahead of looming NBA expansion decision

The NBA is expected to soon discuss potential expansion, with Las Vegas and Seattle widely viewed as the leading candidates for new franchises.

If expansion moves forward, it would include an expansion draft in which existing teams can protect a limited number of players (eight), while new teams select from the rest. In that scenario, the Dallas Mavericks could be among the teams with the most to lose.

The Dallas Mavericks' roster puzzle is about to get worse

Despite the Dallas Mavericks being among the more disappointing teams in the NBA, their roster is relatively deep. The reason is fairly straightforward. Dallas doesn’t lack talent; it lacks cohesion. The roster was originally built around Luka Doncic, who was abruptly traded in the middle of last season, leaving behind pieces that no longer fit together.

Thus, the Mavericks have been left with a collection of valuable yet ill-fitting pieces. That issue was only exacerbated when Dallas landed another generational talent in Cooper Flagg. However, while dominant in his own right, Flagg is a fundamentally different player than Doncic.

Before diving deeper into Dallas’ roster issues, it’s worth returning to the bigger picture. The Mavericks have a lot to lose if an expansion draft takes place. With only eight players eligible for protection, Dallas is deep enough to risk losing a valuable contributor. While that’s true for many teams across the NBA, the Mavericks’ situation could become even more precarious in the months ahead.

The expansion draft nightmare Dallas won't be able to avoid

The Mavericks are set to add a top-10 pick to a roster that already features 10 players under contract beyond this season: Flagg, AJ Johnson, Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, and P.J. Washington.

Thus, when factoring in the aforementioned group and any players Dallas brings back in free agency, such as Brandon Williams, Marvin Bagley III, and Ryan Nembhard, the Mavericks could soon face the difficult task of deciding which eight players to protect.

Of the aforementioned players, Flagg, Lively II, Gafford, Irving, Christie, Marshall, and Washington appear to be the most likely candidates for protection, with the incoming top-10 pick rounding out the group of eight. That would leave intriguing players like Johnson, Williams, and Nembhard as potential casualties.

Still, this doesn’t even account for who Dallas might add in free agency. The Mavs could realistically create enough cap flexibility to use the non-tax midlevel exception (projected to be around $15 million next season), adding yet another player they’d likely want to protect.

There are still plenty of variables at play, and this scenario may not ultimately come to fruition. Nonetheless, it’s worth monitoring, especially with the NBA Board of Governors voting in the coming days on whether expansion plans will move forward.