Mavericks' doomsday draft scenario is one lottery slip away

The Dallas Mavericks wrapped up their second-worst season in the 21st century last month after finishing 26-56, but this may not have been enough losing for them to land a top-tier talent in the 2026 NBA Draft. Dallas has just a 28.9 percent chance to finish in the top four of the lottery, as they have the eighth-best odds. Unfortunately for them, they have a better chance at falling to nine, 10, 11, or 12 than they do to stay at eight.

This is where danger comes into play, and Mavericks fans' eyes will be glued to their TVs for the NBA Draft Lottery later today. Fans wouldn't even have to worry about this if they had tanked properly, but here we are.

Dallas is relying on the basketball gods rather than the odds, and they shouldn't even be in this predicament to begin with. They punted on the season by trading Anthony Davis and shutting down Kyrie Irving, but winning a handful too many games at the end of the year came back to bite them in the lottery standings.

Falling outside the top eight could erase Dallas' top guard options

Despite this year's draft being strong throughout, falling outside of the top eight could be a disaster for the Mavericks. They desperately need guard depth to finally get Cooper Flagg some help, but with the way this draft is projecting to fall, the flurry of elite guards could be all gone by the time Dallas gets on the clock if they don't pick in the top eight.

Not being able to draft an elite running mate for Flagg would be a nightmare, as the Mavericks don't fully control their own first-round pick after this year until 2031. This is their one opportunity to draft in the lottery at the beginning of Flagg's career, and wherever they finish will have huge implications on their future.

Players like Darius Acuff Jr., Keaton Wagler, Mikel Brown Jr., and Kingston Flemings have been at the top of Mavericks fans' minds for months, but there's a chance that none of them are on the board if Dallas drops to pick nine. Even if one of them is available, the Mavs will be forced to settle for a prospect rather than selecting the one that fits their squad best.

Settling in the draft is the last thing Dallas should be doing after last season's disaster, but plainly, teams out-tanked them. Rival teams knew how pivotal moving up in the lottery this year is, and their decision to shamelessly tank proved this.

The Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies prioritized lottery odds at the end of the regular season, helping them finish with the fourth and sixth-best odds to receive the No. 1 overall pick.

Their shots at landing the first pick are only marginally better than the Mavericks', as Dallas has a 6.7 percent chance, while Utah has an 11.5 percent chance, and Memphis has a 9.0 percent chance, but the real advantage comes with how far each of these teams can fall. The Jazz can only fall to eighth at the worst, while the Grizzlies can only fall to tenth.

This is a major difference from the Mavericks, as they can fall to twelfth if everything goes wrong.

Refusing to tank could come back to bite the Mavericks

While the Mavericks tanked some games as well, they didn't do it hard enough. They won three of their final nine games, and after losing a tiebreaker with the New Orleans Pelicans, they landed at eighth in the pre-lottery standings despite tying for the eighth-worst season in franchise history.

This was the Mavericks' one chance to tank to help put them in the best spot possible to draft Flagg's co-star, but they decided not to fully lean into tanking. This worked for them last year, as they didn't tank but still won the lottery, and fans will be hoping that this same luck follows them today.

If not, it could come at the cost of them landing a premier guard.

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