ESPN reveals harsh draft truth the Mavericks could soon face

As talented as the 2026 NBA Draft is, the Dallas Mavericks could be hard-pressed to find Cooper Flagg's co-star of the future if they land outside the top eight of the lottery tomorrow, as NBA insiders like ESPN's Bobby Marks think the top eight of this draft is where a huge portion of the talent lies.

Marks went on local Dallas radio station "105.3 The Fan" to discuss the Mavericks ahead of the NBA Draft Lottery this week, and revealed he thinks landing outside the top eight could really come to Dallas' detriment.

"I think this draft is really good, but I think there are eight really, really good players there," Marks said. "You don't wanna fall back at all, but I do think they'll walk away with something pretty good."

Mavericks' lottery fate could hinge on landing in the top eight

The Mavericks have a 32.9 percent chance of staying at the eighth pick, as they drew the eighth-best lottery odds after losing a tiebreaker with the New Orleans Pelicans a couple of weeks ago. Dallas has roughly a 38.1 percent chance at moving down in the lottery, though, and only a 28.9 percent chance at moving inside the top four of the draft.

Media members and fans have been dreaming about Dallas landing a top guard in this draft class, such as Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., Kingston Flemings, or Keaton Wagler, but most mock drafts have all these players going inside the top eight.

Of course, this doesn't mean the Mavericks are totally doomed if they were to land the ninth pick, as one of these players could still fall to them, or they could package their 30th pick to try and move up in the lottery if there's someone they really want to target. However, it would certainly make it easier for Dallas to land a top prospect if they land inside the top eight, and they'd have their pick of the litter in terms of potential future All-Stars if they moved up inside the top four.

This 2026 class is elite at the top but drops off fast

The Mavericks' fate will be determined shortly after 2 p.m. CT tomorrow when the lottery kicks off, but they'll undeniably need some lottery luck again to stay at eight or to move up. To Marks' point, the Mavericks have a higher chance at moving down in the lottery compared to either staying at eight or moving inside the top four, even if the percentages only have a marginal difference.

It's not quite time to jump the gun on saying the Mavericks needed to have tanked harder down the end of the season yet, but if they were to land outside the top eight tomorrow, conversations will inevitably be sparked by fans online over how Dallas tried to stay too competitive toward the end of the season.

Luckily for the Mavericks, they just hired a draft expert as GM in Mike Schmitz to go alongside new team president Masai Ujiri, so they'll be in good hands to make the best possible selection regardless of where they land in the lottery. There's still a lot to be determined before the draft on June 24, but the Mavericks may encounter a harsh reality if they can't land inside the top eight of this top-heavy draft class tomorrow.

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