Mavericks' defense problem is about to cost a fan-favorite his future

Despite a breakout season with the Dallas Mavericks, averaging 13.0 points and 3.9 assists per game, Brandon Williams isn’t guaranteed to be back. His 3-point shot, or lack thereof, has drawn its fair share of flak, but it’s his inconsistent defense that could ultimately cost him a new deal.

The Mavericks won’t have much flexibility this offseason. If they pick up Ryan Nembhard’s team option and add two first-round picks, their roster will already be at 13 players, leaving just two spots for Williams and the team’s other free agents, including Marvin Bagley III, Khris Middleton, and Dwight Powell, as well as any outside additions.

Brandon Williams' return is far from a given

Consequently, the Mavericks will have to be decisive about who they bring back, prioritizing players whose strengths best complement their weaknesses. And those weaknesses lie in shooting and perimeter defense, two areas where Williams has struggled.

There’s a clear path for the Mavericks’ shooting to improve next season through Kyrie Irving’s return, Cooper Flagg’s growth, and a potential offensive-minded lottery pick. The same can’t be said for their perimeter defense.

Irving has improved defensively in recent seasons. Still, he’ll return at 34 and coming off a torn ACL, which is hardly an ideal foundation for containing opposing point guards. The rest of Dallas’ backcourt hasn’t offered much relief, either. Max Christie, Nembhard, and Thompson have all struggled on the defensive end, and AJ Johnson hasn’t shown enough to change that outlook.

Williams’ defensive struggles raise concerns

Add Williams to the mix, and it's a recipe for disaster. Most troubling of all, he was arguably the weakest defender in that group. According to CraftedNBA’s catch-all metric, CraftedDBPM, Williams ranked 210th out of 264 players who logged at least 1,000 minutes.

Moreover, Williams’ opponents shot 3.6 percentage points better when he was the primary defender. Among 286 players to have appeared in at least 50 games, he ranked 253rd. Notably, some elite defenders, like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kawhi Leonard, graded out worse by that metric, but they were tasked with far more difficult matchups than Williams.

For instance, Williams’ three most common matchups were Jaylen Wells, Reed Sheppard, and Gabe Vincent. While there's some talent there, that group reflects the level of competition he typically faced, reserve guards and, in Wells’ case, a defense-first wing. Williams wasn’t tasked with defending high-level creators, yet opponents still shot significantly better against him.

Lastly, despite being one of the quicker players in the NBA, Williams didn’t generate many defensive events. He averaged just 0.9 steals and 1.7 deflections per game. While quickness surely helps, producing turnovers also requires anticipation and length, which are areas Williams falls short, as reflected by his 6-foot-1 frame.

Williams’ breakout season deserves recognition. He went from an undrafted castoff to one of the Mavericks’ more productive contributors a year ago. But as Dallas shifts from rebuilding to hopeful contention, roster spots become less secure, and Williams may not fit that next phase, with his defensive limitations playing a central role in that uncertainty.

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