Mavericks' brutal collapse is jeopardizing Cooper Flagg's Rookie of the Year crown

Despite being the most talented rookie in the NBA, Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg is no longer a lock to win Rookie of the Year. This seemed like the only certainty about the Mavs before the season began, but things have changed drastically as of late.

Flagg just missed eight games in a row due to a left midfoot sprain before returning last week, and while he was out, Kon Knueppel and the Charlotte Hornets surged in the standings while Dallas sank. Winning usually doesn't determine Rookie of the Year, but Knueppel and the Hornets' story may be an exception.

If voters end up valuing winning more than they usually do, things are lining up for Kon Knueppel to steal the award from Cooper Flagg despite Flagg being the more dominant player.

The Hornets and Mavericks are polar opposites

Charlotte is now 16-5 over their last 21 games, and they've gone from a lottery team to a lock for the Play-In Tournament at the very least. Knueppel and the Hornets' rise have become one of the biggest storylines in the NBA over the last few weeks, and they're in a great position to snap the longest playoff drought in the league.

On the other hand, Dallas is plummeting in the standings, as they've lost 17 of their last 19 games. They're high-tailing it for another shot to move up in the lottery, and they're on pace to miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.

No one expected Dallas to be this bad

The Mavericks are currently the sixth-worst team in the NBA, and their place in the standings could cost Flagg his chance to win Rookie of the Year.

As of Monday, March 9, 2026, Flagg trails Knueppel in Rookie of the Year odds. Knueppel is a -150 favorite to win the award while Flagg is at +120 odds. This gap won't be impossible for Flagg to close, but the opposite narratives surrounding the Hornets and Mavs could prove to be detrimental for Flagg's hunt to win Rookie of the Year.

Flagg cares far more about winning games than he does about winning Rookie of the Year, but who wouldn't want to win the most prestigious award that an NBA rookie can get? He's going head-to-head with a close friend and roommate from Duke, and this honor at least means something to him.

Why Cooper Flagg's numbers alone can't win him Rookie of the Year

The numbers and eye test tell you everything you need to know about Cooper Flagg and his future in the NBA.

He's averaging 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 47.2 percent from the field. Flagg is clearly going to be a superstar in this league for years to come due to his unreal finishing, nonstop motor, competitiveness, and high-level defensive impact, but his team has not followed suit.

Before the season, Dallas was at least expected to be a play-in team. Anthony Davis was healthy entering his first full season with the team, and Kyrie Irving was on track to return from his ACL tear at some point near the end of the season.

What else could they ask for after getting bounced in the Play-In Tournament in the season prior?

How Dallas' season collapsed — despite Flagg's brilliance

Flagg was in a great spot to help his team avoid missing the playoffs again, but several things have gone sideways around him.

Irving was shut down, Davis was traded after playing just 20 games as a Maverick this season, and injuries have plagued several key role players on the team. As a result, Dallas' season has turned dark.

They've been forced to tank in an effort to find a co-star for Flagg, and they're not playing an entertaining brand of basketball. The Mavericks have the No. 29-ranked offense and 15th-ranked defense in the NBA, and their offensive shortcomings have caused them to drop countless games.

43 games to be exact — and there are still 18 games remaining.

For reference, Dallas lost 43 games altogether last season.

Dallas hasn't had a point guard to properly lead the offense while Kyrie Irving is out, and this has cost them significantly.

Why wins could push Kon Knueppel past Cooper Flagg

Kon Knueppel's squad, though, is the exact opposite.

They went from being expected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA to a team that no team in the Eastern Conference will want to see once the playoffs come around. Knueppel has spearheaded this unexpected rise from the ashes, and this could lead to the panel of voters siding with him to win Rookie of the Year over Flagg.

The voters' thoughts on winning could be what the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year race comes down to, and if this is the case, Flagg may fall short.