Cooper Flagg’s once-surefire Rookie of the Year case isn’t so sure anymore

There’s only one rookie in the NBA averaging more than 20 points per game, and it’s Dallas Mavericks phenom Cooper Flagg. The 19-year-old is putting up 20.4 points per night, the second-highest scoring average by a rookie drafted this decade, trailing only Victor Wembanyama.

Despite the scoring punch and well-rounded stat line (6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game), Flagg is no longer the favorite to hoist the same award Wembanyama claimed three years ago. That distinction now belongs to his former Duke teammate, Kon Knueppel, who has edged ahead in the Rookie of the Year race.

Kon Knueppel's rise fuels Rookie of the Year momentum

Knueppel has emerged as the clear betting favorite across sportsbooks. According to DraftKings, the Charlotte Hornets wing is listed at -175 to win the award. It’s a dramatic swing fueled by Flagg’s injury absence — less than two weeks ago, Flagg was a runaway favorite.

After missing seven straight games, including the Rising Stars showcase, Flagg has slipped in the Rookie of the Year race, while Knueppel has climbed into the top spot. Knueppel not only played in Rising Stars but also advanced to the final round of the 3-Point Contest, further boosting his momentum.

Since the All-Star break, the 20-year-old is averaging 22.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 52.8 percent from the field and 50.9 percent from beyond the arc. Most notably, during Charlotte’s 4-2 stretch, Knueppel owns a staggering plus-32.9 plus/minus.

While Flagg’s season-long numbers are eye-popping, Knueppel’s production isn’t far behind his former Duke teammate. He’s scoring at high volume and doing so efficiently, all while driving winning basketball. The Hornets are 19-9 since the new year (the third-best mark in the NBA), and during that span, Knueppel owns a 13.8 net rating, which ranks 10th league-wide.

Cooper Flagg’s return could reignite the Rookie of the Year race

Knueppel’s momentum should continue as long as Flagg is sidelined. But the race is far from decided. Flagg is nearing a return. He's unlikely to face Knueppel and the Hornets on March 3, yet potentially back on March 5 against Boston, setting up a final stretch that could determine the award.

It may be difficult for Flagg to separate himself through team success (Dallas has lost 13 of its last 15 games), but wins have historically carried less weight in Rookie of the Year voting than, say, in the MVP race. Still, Knueppel’s impact on Charlotte shouldn’t be dismissed. It’s rare for a rookie to arrive and immediately shift a franchise’s trajectory. The Hornets hadn’t won more than 30 games in a season since 2021-22. They’ve already matched that mark at 30-31.

Still, Flagg’s trajectory has been remarkable. Few could have predicted the drastic month-to-month leap he’s made this season, culminating in a 27.3-point average in February before his midfoot sprain. Knueppel may currently hold the edge in the Rookie of the Year race, but it would hardly be surprising to see Flagg reclaim that ground upon his return.