Mavericks' Anthony Davis trade slightly shifts in the Wizards' direction

When the Dallas Mavericks shipped 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards, the return looked solid on paper. Dallas landed two first-round picks, three second-rounders, and salary fillers, but one key piece of the deal is already losing value.

Mavericks’ 2026 first-round pick from Wizards is already slipping in value

The 2026 first-round pick from Washington (acquired via the Oklahoma City Thunder) is the No. 30 overall selection. With a growing number of draft-eligible prospects opting to return to college, the back end of the 2026 NBA Draft is suddenly looking far less appealing.

And unfortunately for Dallas, that could become the norm for late first-round and second-round picks moving forward.

Instead of high-upside prospects sliding because of limited collegiate production or other concerns, the back half of the draft is increasingly expected to be filled with experienced college players… many of them seniors. As a result, the Mavericks are more likely to land a polished but lower-ceiling contributor with the second of their two first-round picks rather than an overlooked, more appealing prospect.

Why the Mavericks-Wizards trade is already being re-evaluated

Thus, the trade (which is still impossible to fully grade considering Davis has yet to appear for the Wizards) is beginning to shift back in Washington’s favor.

How was it ever in Dallas’ favor, you might ask? Simple. The Mavericks managed to trade a player who never ended up playing a single second in the Nation’s Capital and still walked away with two first-round picks. On the surface, that alone felt like a victory for Dallas. Now, however, the value of one of those key assets is already beginning to fade.

In the beginning, the trade seemed like a clear loss for Dallas, especially considering it would forever be compared to what the Mavericks gave up to acquire Davis. (Hello, Luka Doncic.) But over time, the sting began to lessen as the ramifications of the deal took shape, namely, the draft capital Dallas received and, perhaps even more importantly, the salary cap relief that came with moving Davis’ contract.

How NCAA return decisions are impacting the 2026 NBA Draft pool

Now, the pendulum is beginning to swing back toward the trade, looking like a loss for Dallas, largely because of the recent wave of draft withdrawals. Potential first-round talents such as Alabama's Amari Allen, Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic, Kentucky's Malachi Moreno, Louisville's Flory Bidunga, St. John's Tonde Yessoufou, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner all withdrew from draft consideration and opted to return to school instead.

Of the aforementioned names, Momcilovic is the lone upperclassman. Even then, he possesses a bankable skill that would immediately appeal to the Mavericks — knockdown shooting. The former Iowa State standout, who has since entered the transfer portal, emerged as one of college basketball's premier perimeter threats, making him the exact type of late first-round, plug-and-play prospect Dallas could have targeted because of his floor-spacing ability.

Moreover, the remaining aforementioned prospects returning to the collegiate ranks all possess intriguing long-term upside because of their relative youth and production, which is precisely what would have made them attractive late first-round targets for the Mavericks.

Using Tankathon's Big Board as a reference, 26 of the 30 prospects currently projected in the second-round range will be 22 years old or older by the start of the NBA season. The only exceptions are three international prospects and Illinois guard Kylan Boswell, who, despite being just 21, is already a four-year senior.

It speaks to how dramatically the back half of the draft is changing. Of course, the No. 30 pick technically isn't a second-rounder, but at that point, the distinction is negligible.

Ultimately, the Davis trade cannot fully be graded until Davis hits the floor. But the early returns are starting to tilt the conversation away from Dallas. What once looked like a solid return built on multiple picks is increasingly being re-evaluated through the lens of a weaker draft landscape, where even first-round selections near the back end carry less upside than initially expected.

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