Mavericks’ draft picks are quietly losing value behind the scenes

The NBA Draft landscape is shifting. With lucrative Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) opportunities giving fringe prospects a reason to stay in school, the back half of the draft has quietly flattened.

However, the Dallas Mavericks are a step ahead of that reality. After hitting on multiple undrafted free agents in 2025, some of whom even outperformed first-round picks, Dallas enters the 2026 draft with three selections that may matter far less than their positioning suggests.

How NIL is changing the NBA Draft landscape

It’s almost a double-edged sword for the Mavericks — one created by the shifting draft dynamics reshaping how the NBA utilizes the draft. As the back half of the draft becomes increasingly diluted with similar-tier prospects, viable talent is slipping through the cracks. Dallas capitalized on that instance a year ago, signing Ryan Nembhard as an undrafted free agent and extracting value comparable to what some teams found in the first round.

But that same flattening of the talent pool has a reverse effect. With fewer clear distinctions between late first and second-round prospects, the Mavericks’ additional picks this year carry far less value than they once did.

Aside from their projected lottery selection at No. 8, Dallas also holds the 30th pick via the Oklahoma City Thunder and the 48th overall selection via the Phoenix Suns.

Blurred lines between undrafted free agency and the second round

A year ago, the Los Angeles Clippers used the 30th pick on then-22-year-old Yanic Konan Niederhauser, and the Memphis Grizzlies selected then-22-year-old Javon Small at No. 48. Both were older prospects with relatively defined ceilings, reflective of the new-era draft, which is populated by experienced prospects. And while each carved out a role, neither clearly outperformed Dallas' undrafted contributors like Nembhard and Moussa Cisse.

So while it's all well and good that the Mavericks have additional draft capital as they navigate the future, it comes at a time when late-round picks may not carry the same weight they once did, and that's something Dallas already demonstrated through its success in undrafted free agency.

In fact, that success ran so deep that John Poulakidas hasn't even been mentioned yet, despite averaging 11.8 points and 3.2 three-pointers per game in April!

Why late NBA Draft picks are losing value

It’s a growing conundrum — one the league hasn’t fully caught up to. Draft-and-stash pathways are all but gone, and even international prospects are increasingly opting for the collegiate route. More strikingly, not a single underclassman was selected in the second round of the 2025 draft. Just five years ago, underclassmen made up roughly half of those selections.

Late-round underclassmen don’t always pan out, but their declining presence underscores how much the draft is being reshaped. The second round no longer offers high-upside swings, but features older, more plug-and-play prospects.

For the Mavericks, that shift matters. Even as they've accumulated draft capital, the value of those late-round selections continues to shrink, making Dallas something of a poster child for this evolution. Looking to the future, it's likely better for teams to start treating second-round picks less as developmental bets and more as assets. Either packaging them in trades for veterans or using them to move up in the first round.

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