ESPN's big Mavericks question will make or break their playoff hopes

The Dallas Mavericks have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2019, Luka Doncic's rookie year, but a key question will determine if Dallas can end this drought next season. "Can Irving return to form?"

This was ESPN's "big question" about the Mavericks in a recent article titled "Dallas Mavericks offseason recap, early 2026-27 season preview," and the answer to this question will ultimately determine how Dallas performs in the 2026-27 season.

The Mavericks need Kyrie Irving to bounce back badly

Kyrie Irving hasn't played in an NBA game since March 3, 2025, and his return is going to have a massive impact on how the Mavs' season goes. Dallas has a solid young core, headlined by players like Cooper Flagg, Morez Johnson Jr., Max Christie, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dereck Lively II, but Irving's ability to bounce back after not playing in a game in over 18 months is what's really going to make or break the season.

If Kyrie looks like the player he was before he tore his ACL in 2025, the Mavs could quickly silence the doubters and emerge as a top-six team in the Western Conference.

Most critics, including ESPN in this article, don't expect the Mavericks to drastically improve next season. The NBA betting expert who contributed to this piece predicted that Dallas would win fewer than 34.5 games next season, even after making several key additions this summer after a 26-win season.

But if Irving can't return to being a star for the Mavericks, they could easily miss the playoffs for the third year in a row. This would be a disappointing outcome after this offseason's overhaul, and especially since they don't own their first-round pick next year.

Irving was looking like a top guard in the NBA before his injury

There will be other factors that play into how the Mavs' season goes, but Irving's return is at the top of the list. He averaged 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 95.2 percent from the free-throw line from the time Doncic was traded in early February 2025 until Irving got injured, and he was playing some of the best basketball of his career.

He looked like an All-NBA player in this stretch, and Kyrie returning to that level once again would thrust the Mavericks into contention to be in the playoff picture. This isn't to say that they'll be a juggernaut like the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs, but they could stack up to teams like the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers. Both Houston and Los Angeles were top-six teams in the West last season, and Dallas arguably had better offseasons than both of them.

Irving's return matters more than any of Dallas' offseason additions

The Mavericks made some big moves, such as trading for Risacher and Santi Aldama and drafting Johnson Jr. and De Larrea, but the addition of Irving back into the active lineup is what really needs to be talked about. This storyline hasn't been talked about enough despite the immense hype that should be coming along with it, and his performance will be a huge swing factor into how Dallas plays.

Kyrie's ability to play on and off the ball, create for himself and others, lead the offense, and knock down open shots will work wonders for the team's offense, and everyone's life will become easier when he's on the court.

The Mavericks desperately lacked shot creation, playmaking, and shooting last season, and with these three things being Irving's expertise through the first 14 years of his career, he could be the reason Dallas shocks the world and makes the playoffs if he returns to form. If he doesn't, or he happens to deal with another injury or series of injuries, Dallas could be in trouble in the first season of the Dusty May era.

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