Daniel Gafford's rim protection is exposing a Mavericks defensive dilemma

Daniel Gafford is having a massively impactful yet under-the-radar start to his eighth professional season. No player in the NBA has been more effective at limiting opponents around the basket than Gafford, who leads the league, holding opponents to a whopping 22.1 percentage points below their expected field goal percentage at the rim.

Gafford has been awesome, to say the least. Remarkably, Dallas is 21.7 points per 100 possessions better with the big man on the floor. Pretty useful, huh? Yet despite Gafford's elite metrics, the Mavericks have been so-so, at best, on the defensive end. Thus far, their defensive identity has been rooted in Gafford's stifling interior presence and, well, opposing teams' inability to hit open threes.

Mavericks' early defensive success comes with some warning signs

That's not exactly the most reassuring recipe for a team hoping to sustain its early success. Dallas isn't forcing turnovers at a particularly high rate either, and its reliance on Gafford to deter shots around the basket raises another question: What happens when he's off the floor?

Well, too many variables remain at this juncture, and the sample size this early in the season is incredibly small. Alas, some of the early-season statistics are still startling.

First off, Mavericks opponents are shooting 29.7 percent from beyond the arc, 29th in the NBA. Sure, Dallas could just be that good at defending the 3-point line, but it's difficult to believe opponents will continue shooting this poorly over the course of an entire season.

Digging a little deeper, Mavericks opponents are shooting 35.5 percent (17th) on wide-open (6+ feet) and 26.6 percent (30th) on open (4-6 feet) 3-pointers. The latter is especially damning, considering that figure is nearly eight percentage points below the league median. In other words, opponents would be making roughly one additional 3-pointer per game if they were shooting at a league-average clip on open attempts.

Moreover, Dallas' second-biggest defensive shortcoming is its inability to force turnovers. Mavericks opponents are coughing it up 15.0 turnovers per game, which ranks 23rd in the NBA. However, the Mavericks are pretty good at capitalizing on those opportunities, ranking 14th in the league with 18.8 points off turnovers per game. That goes hand in hand with their transition expertise, as Dallas ranks fifth in fast-break points despite sitting 18th in pace.

Daniel Gafford is carrying the Mavericks' interior defense

That leaves the Mavericks' interior defense as arguably their most dependable defensive asset, and nobody has been more responsible for that than Gafford.

That's why Dallas is so much better with Gafford on the floor. He's defending a team-high 6.0 rim attempts per game, with opponents shooting 22.1 percentage points below their expected mark. Dallas' other bigs, Morez Johnson Jr. and P.J. Washington, haven't come close to matching that production, allowing opponents to shoot 15.2 and 5.1 percentage points above their expected mark, respectively.

This culminates in a mighty important question: What happens when Gafford is off the floor?

Mavericks face a major question mark behind Daniel Gafford

Well, first off, Dallas' net rating jumps to 12.1 with Gafford on the floor and falls to minus-2.0 with the big man on the bench. More importantly, opponents are shooting nearly a full percentage point better from the field without Gafford. So, there's that. But what about when Gafford misses time? Who's the last line of defense? Johnson, Washington, Moussa Cisse? Dallas doesn't necessarily have a clear-cut answer.

Of course, Cisse's sample size is even smaller than most, considering he's only suited up for 13 total minutes this season. Moreover, Dereck Lively II has yet to make an appearance. Yet, their respective lack of experience and availability only compound the dilemma. For context, Cisse has appeared in just 42 career games, while Lively has played 98 through three-plus professional seasons.

All things considered, Gafford has been terrific to begin the 2026-27 campaign. However, the Mavericks' reliance on the big man is becoming increasingly apparent. It was well known that Dallas' perimeter defense was a weakness entering the season, but Gafford's stifling interior presence has helped mask some of those concerns thus far.

Yet, that begs a bigger question: Can Dallas maintain its early success if its supporting defense doesn't improve?

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