Cooper Flagg's disrespected Mavericks season exposes flawed Rookie of the Year race

Less than a month from the postseason, NBA award season is in full swing. While many awards are still up for debate, Rookie of the Year is apparently all but decided, at least according to ESPN. Zach Kram, who ranked the top 10 rookies in the league, placed Kon Knueppel at No. 1 and wrote, “Knueppel should win the Rookie of the Year award, and for as well as [Cooper] Flagg has played, the decision shouldn't be that close.”

Stats love Kon Knueppel but miss the point

That sentiment, however, is exactly why Flagg has become one of the most overlooked rookies in the league.

The reigning first overall pick leads all rookies in points per game while ranking fourth in rebounding and second in assists. He also sits third in player efficiency rating and second in estimated wins added.

So where does Knueppel stack up? The fourth overall pick ranks second in scoring, eighth in rebounding, and ninth in assists, while leading the class in both player efficiency rating and estimated wins added.

Yeesh, Knueppel’s advanced analytics do outpace Flagg’s, and that holds across several key metrics. His offensive production even puts him in the company of players like Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham. But this race is about more than offensive numbers, and there is one area in particular that should seriously pump the brakes on Knueppel’s Rookie of the Year case.

The player that ranks between Knueppel and Flagg in both PER and EWA is not VJ Edgecombe, nor is it Dylan Harper. It is Knueppel’s Hornets teammate, Ryan Kalkbrenner. While productive, Kalkbrenner is averaging 7.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. Solid numbers, but hardly the profile of a top-tier rookie.

His profile, along with Knueppel’s, is boosted by a surprisingly strong Charlotte Hornets team. And to be fair, this is not just empty credit. The Hornets are legitimately good. They rank sixth in the NBA in net rating and first since the New Year. Using Basketball Reference’s Pythagorean win-loss model, Charlotte projects as the sixth-best team in the league. That context matters.

Cooper Flagg does more with less

Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 24th in net rating and has been even worse since the calendar flipped. According to Basketball Reference’s Pythagorean win-loss model, Dallas projects as just the 24th-best team in the league.

These factors have led to a wildly overlooked season from the NBA’s best rookie, Flagg. He does not match Knueppel in value over replacement player (VORP) or true shooting percentage, but his usage rate and defensive impact tell a different story. And that story should have him leading the Rookie of the Year race.

There is certainly a rabbit hole to go down when determining the best rookie. But the bigger point is this: advanced analytics and the Hornets' success have helped push Knueppel to the front of the race, shaping a narrative that has overlooked Flagg’s stellar season, and that narrative is why the best rookie in the NBA is not the favorite.