Anthony Davis trade throw-in is already playing his way off the Mavericks

Marvin Bagley III has quickly gone from a throw-in in the Anthony Davis trade to one of the Dallas Mavericks' most consistent players, and this could unfortunately cause them to lose him this summer. Bagley III is set to hit unrestricted free agency after this season, and he is due for a pay raise after signing a veteran minimum contract with the Washington Wizards last offseason.

His first six games with the Mavericks have proven that he is worth much more than this, and keeping him in Dallas is much more complicated than just signing him to another contract and giving him the money he deserves.

As things stand, the Mavericks' only three ways to keep Bagley III in Dallas will be the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or a contract around $3.7 million. He obviously will be worth much more than just under $4 million, leaving Dallas in a sticky situation as they look to build around Cooper Flagg.

Mavericks' road to a Marvin Bagley III reunion is not going to be easy

They could elect to give Bagley III the bi-annual exception worth around $5.5 million annually over two years. If Bagley III wants more than this, the Mavericks are going to have to open up their checkbooks.

The Anthony Davis trade helped them open up the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is worth about $15.1 million annually over four years. This tool helps teams under the first apron pursue a valuable free agent, and Dallas will be able to utilize it to add an impact player.

The only issue is that Bagley III isn't worth the full non-taxpayer MLE, and splitting up the MLE isn't always a smart option. Dallas would be much better off signing a player to the full MLE instead of splitting it up to pay Bagley III and someone else, and the Mavericks keeping him won't be as easy as fans once expected.

He has quickly become the second-best healthy center on the roster, only trailing Daniel Gafford.

Gafford has obviously been a major difference-maker for Dallas since he was acquired at the trade deadline in 2024, but fans are starting to think that trading him and keeping Bagley III would be a smart move. His ankle sprain that he suffered during training camp has been bothering him all season, and paying your backup center over $18 million per year is a questionable strategy.

The Mavericks will obviously start Dereck Lively II next season, and pairing him with a more cost-effective option like Bagley III would be ideal for Dallas. Sadly for Mavericks fans, he may price himself out of a new contract to stay.

He is averaging 13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting 58.9 percent from the field as a Maverick, and teams around the league that need center help are taking notes. Bagley III is just 26 years old and rebounds and finishes around the bucket at a high level, and any team that needs a rim roller would benefit from signing him.

Bagley III has a month and a half to showcase his abilities to the rest of the NBA, and if he continues to play as he has, he may price himself out of the Mavericks re-signing him. It seems like a consensus among Mavericks fans that they want him to come back, but he may just be too good for Dallas to afford.