Mavericks vs. Suns NBA expert prediction and odds for Christmas Day

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Dallas Mavericks-Phoenix Suns matchup on Christmas Day.
Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) and Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) and Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Christmas Day finale in the NBA takes place in Phoenix with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns hosting the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Doncic. 

Dallas comes into this game as a five-point underdog, but it is ahead of the Suns in the standings. 

Phoenix has not been able to get healthy, and the team is likely going to be without Bradley Beal (ankle) in this matchup. Does that give the Mavs some value?

Here are the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

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Mavericks vs. Suns odds, spread and total

Mavericks vs. Suns how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
  • Game Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Footprint Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Mavericks Record: 17-12
  • Suns Record: 14-14

Mavericks vs. Suns injury reports

Dallas Mavericks injury report

  • Josh Green – out
  • Kyrie Irving – out
  • Maxi Kleber – out
  • Dereck Lively II – questionable

Phoenix Suns injury report

  • Bradley Beal – out
  • Jusuf Nurkic – out
  • Eric Gordon – probable
  • Damion Lee – out
  • Josh Okogie – probable
  • Nassir Little – available
  • Yuta Wantanabe – probable

Mavericks vs. Suns key players to watch

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: If there’s a team Luka loves to play, it’s Phoenix, especially since Dallas knocked the Suns out of the playoffs a few season ago. Donci is averaging 25.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists in 16 games against the Suns, scoring 33 or more points in his last three games against them. 

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker: The Booker-Doncic rivalry is real, and Book has been playing some great basketball as of late, averaging 28.4 points and 8.1 assists per game over his last seven matchups. 

Kevin Durant: Kevin Durant has been scoring at will this season, but the Suns are still just a .500 team. He and Booker will need to have big games with Bradley Beal sidelined, especially since the Suns’ supporting cast has not been as great as the team would have hoped. 

Mavericks vs. Suns prediction and pick

There are conflicting trends in this matchup, which is a great reason why we shouldn’t bet strictly on a trend. 

  • Dallas is 1-5 against the spread this season as a road underdog. 
  • Phoenix is 4-8 against the spread this season as a home favorite. 

It will be important to monitor the status of all the stars in this matchup, but I don’t mind leaning with Dallas to cover in this spot. 

The Mavericks are 9-6 on the road this season while Phoenix is just 7-8 at home, and Dallas’ ATS record on the road is a little skewed, as Doncic has missed games when the team was an underdog. 

Assuming Luka suits up in this matchup, the Mavericks should be able to keep this game close. Phoenix has the second worst fourth quarter net rating in the NBA, so live betting Dallas in the fourth could also be a lucrative way to win on Christmas. 

For now, I’ll lean with the Mavs to cover. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.