Mavericks vs. Heat NBA expert prediction and odds for Wednesday, April 10 (Trust Dallas)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Dallas Mavericks-Miami Heat matchup on Wednesday night.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat are both battling for playoff position when they face off on national television on Wednesday night in Miami. 

Dallas has been elite on the road this season, but the Heat won’t be a pushover with the team staring down a spot in the play-in tournament with just a few games to play.

Miami needed double overtime to pick up a win against the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night while the Mavericks dominated – behind a Luka Doncic triple-double –  in a win against the Charlotte Hornets. Dallas is the No. 2 team when it comes to covering the spread on the second night of a back-to-back – will that be a factor tonight?

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Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet on Wednesday night: 

Mavericks vs. Heat odds, spread and total

Mavericks vs. Heat how to watch

  • Date: Wednesday, April 10
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Kaseya Center
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN
  • Mavs record: 49-30
  • Heat record: 44-35

Mavericks vs. Heat injury reports

Mavs injury report

  • Not submitted yet

Heat injury report

  • Not submitted yet

Mavericks vs. Heat key players to watch

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Doncic torched the Heat for 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists earlier this season, and he’s averaging nearly a triple-double for the campaign. Doncic and Kyrie Irving know that this team can lock up a top-five seed in the West, so don’t be shocked if they both play their usual roles on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo: This is a favorable matchup for Adebayo, as Dallas ranks 26th in the NBA in rebounding percentage. Miami’s All-Star big man had 14 points, nine rebounds, and five assists in the first meeting with Dallas, and he’s coming off 10 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, and three steals on Tuesday. 

Mavericks vs. Heat prediction and pick

It’ll be important to monitor the injury reports for both sides on this one with this being the second night of a back-to-back, but I still think Dallas is primed for another win.

The Mavs come into this game on a four-game winning streak (they’ve also taken nine of their last 10), and they have a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed – at least – in the Western Conference if they close out these last couple of games strong.

There are two key trends that I love for Dallas in this game, and I have a hard time not taking it every time these trends fire: 

  • Dallas is 10-3 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back
  • Dallas is 18-4 ATS as a road favorite

Not only that, but Miami is the worst team in the NBA against the spread as a home underdog, going 1-8.

The Heat are in trouble after playing a double overtime game last night, as they’ll likely have some tired legs against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

Lay the points with Dallas here.

Pick: Mavs -4 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.