Is a top 10 draft pick enough to get Mavericks back to playoffs in 2024?

The Dallas Mavericks are facing a ton of difficult decisions, and they start right now. They still have slim hopes of reaching the Play-In Tournament, but chasing it could force Dallas to lose their first-round draft pick. The Mavs owe it to the Knicks with a top ten protection to complete the original Kristaps Porzingis trade. Dallas is weighing shutting down stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to improve their lottery odds.

The Mavs currently have the tenth-worst record in the NBA. That gives them a 3.0 percent chance of landing the top pick in the lottery and the odds are 79.8 percent that they keep their selection. If they finish there, Dallas would pick in the top four or tenth, but fans would not know where until after the lottery on May 16.

Is a top-ten draft pick enough to get the Mavericks back to the playoffs in 2024? Will keeping their draft pick make a significant impact on the team’s future? Draft picks do not always hit. Here is a look at why it is unlikely to help them next season, but it could be massive for the Mavs.

Dallas Mavericks expect to return to playoffs in 2024 with or without adding top 10 draft pick

The Mavs did not expect to be here. They are one year removed from a trip to the conference finals, and Luka Doncic led the franchise to the playoffs three straight years. This season has not gone as planned, but it is not like Dallas is hopeless. Doncic is 24 years old and on pace to be an all-time great player. The Mavericks expect to be back in contention next season no matter where their first-round pick ends up.

Kyrie Irving is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and he will have plenty of suitors. The Mavs need to re-sign him and build their roster around their superstar duo. They need help on the wings, a center upgrade, and to improve their depth. It won’t be easy, but Dallas has two future Hall of Famers on their roster. They expect to be right back in the thick of the playoff race next season.

Keeping their draft pick likely won’t help much in 2024, but the selection could be massive for the Dallas Mavericks' future.