Mavericks Lottery odds: What are the chances of landing the #1 pick?

Dallas Mavericks, Jason Kidd, Nico Harrison
Dallas Mavericks, Jason Kidd, Nico Harrison / SOPA Images/GettyImages

The Dallas Mavericks have a ton riding on the 2023 NBA Draft lottery on May 16, and it will be one of the biggest nights in franchise history. They owe their first-round pick to the Knicks if it lands outside the top ten. Dallas tanked their final two games to have the tenth-worst record, and the NBA fined the team $750,000 for it.

There is a real chance that Dallas lost those games, threw away their shot at the Play-In Tournament in a wide-open Western Conference, and was fined for nothing. If one team jumps them in the lottery, the Mavericks have to send their pick to New York and it would leave them without a selection in the 2023 draft.

Fans will be both dreading and dreaming about the possibilities on May 16. For the winner of the lottery, a generational prospect awaits, and Victor Wembanyama has all 14 teams with a chance excited about the evening. Could that franchise be the Mavericks?

Dallas Mavericks Lottery odds: What are the odds of getting the #1 pick?

The odds are slim that Dallas ends up with the number one pick, but they nearly have the same shot to move into the top four as the team with the worst record in the league has at landing the top pick.

Odds of landing the #1 pick: 3.0 percent

Odds of landing the #2 pick: 3.3 percent

Odds of landing the #3 pick: 3.6 percent

Odds of landing the #4 pick: 4.0 percent

Odds of selecting in the top 4: 13.9 percent

The Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs all have a 14.0 percent chance of landing the number one pick, so Dallas has nearly an identical shot to move into the top four. 13.9 percent does not seem like much, but it is approximately a one-in-seven shot.

The Mavericks will pick in the top four, tenth, or not at all in the 2023 NBA Draft. Here is a look at their odds of keeping their selection.

Odds of selection 10th overall: 65.9 percent

Odds of keeping their pick: 79.8 percent

Odds of Mavericks losing pick to New York: 20.2 percent

Four out of every five times the Mavericks keep their pick, but fans will be dreading the one that they don’t happens on May 16. It will be a stressful and nervous evening for the franchise and its fans. Dallas needs that pick to improve their roster this summer. Without upgrades, the Mavs could lose Luka Doncic and be in a total rebuild.

There is a ton riding on the NBA Draft Lottery for the Dallas Mavericks. Will they keep their pick? Do the Mavs get lucky and move into the top four? What if the franchise loses the selection to the Knicks? All of those questions will make May 16 an important day in franchise history, so do not miss it.

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