Best NBA prop bets today for Suns vs. Mavericks (Luka Doncic undervalued against Phoenix)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Dallas Mavericks-Phoenix Suns matchup in the NBA on Thursday.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

One of the best rivalries in the Western Conference gets a new chapter on Thursday night with the Phoenix Suns hitting the road to take on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. 

Dallas entered the All-Star break on a six-game winning streak, and the team is finally getting healthy with Dereck Lively II back in the lineup. Plus, Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington give Dallas a lot more depth in its rotation for the stretch run of the season. 

With this game set as a near pick’em, I’m looking to the prop market for my favorite plays in this one. 

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Let’s dive into two Mavericks – and one Suns – prop bets for Thursday’s action on TNT: 

Suns vs. Mavericks best NBA prop bets 

  • Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 points
  • Devin Booker OVER 9.5 rebounds and assists
  • PJ Washington OVER 4.5 rebounds

Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 points

This number is just criminally low for Doncic, who is averaging 34.2 points per game and has torched Phoenix this season. 

In his two previous meetings with the Suns, Doncic scored 50 and 34 points, and he’s cleared this total in three of his last five games overall. 

While he did fail to hit it in back-to-back games before the break, Doncic attempted just 16 shots in a triple-double performance against Washington before playing less than 32 minutes in a blowout win against the Spurs. 

He should have a big scoring game in what should be one of the best matchups of the night. 

Devin Booker OVER 9.5 rebounds and assists

Mavericks fans certainly aren’t fans of Devin Booker, but with his prop numbers coming down ahead of this game, I think he’s worth a shot to go over his assists and rebounds number. 

Booker has cleared this line in both his games against Dallas, and the Mavs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 28th in rebounding percentage. 

The Suns guard is averaging 4.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game this season, so getting him to pick up just 10 rebounds and assists feels like a bargain.  

PJ Washington OVER 4.5 rebounds

In three games with the Mavericks, Washington has been consistent in one area: rebounding. 

PJ has at least five boards in every game in Dallas, and he’s averaging 10.0 rebound chances per game over this stretch. 

While the Suns are one of the better rebounding teams in the league, Washington will be needed on the glass in this one with Gafford and Lively II likely having to deal with Jusuf Nurkic down low. 

Washington has played a major role for the Mavs since being acquired from Charlotte, so I don’t mind taking him to get five boards once again on Thursday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.