With the Dallas Mavericks currently having the eighth best odds at the No. 1 pick, the overwhelming likelihood is they land somewhere in the 5-10 range in the NBA Draft Lottery. If this ends up being the case, NBA Draft guru Nathan Grubel thinks they should select Illinois guard Keaton Wagler.
I will say about Keaton Wagler, think my favorite fit for him might be in Dallas. He’s the type of player that would benefit greatly learning all of the nuances from Kyrie Irving, while being able to play in between Irving/Flagg in the short term, long term being the PG.
— Nathan Grubel (@DraftDeeper) March 28, 2026
Wagler is a taller guard at 6-foot-6, and has the potential playmaking chops to be a lead point guard in the league, but could also play alongside Kyrie Irving in the starting lineup if needed. This may not be as applicable with more pure point guards Dallas could draft such as Kingston Flemings or Darius Acuff Jr., but Wagler could definitely play the two a good chunk if needed, especially since he shot 39.7 percent from outside in college.
Draft guru thinks Keaton Wagler would be a perfect fit in Dallas
Wagler has been compared to the likes of Brandon Roy and Tyrese Haliburton by draft experts, as he's a wiry guard at his height, who is a three-level scoring threat and great playmaker. He needs to add some strength at the NBA level to improve defensively, and he's not the most athletic guard in the draft by any means, but he could certainly work on these areas.
However, he has great touch and uses angles well, and he can pass with either hand on the run. He epitomizes what NBA GMs are looking for in the modern day combo guard, and has been described as a team-first guy and great leader through his time at Illinois. Wagler matches both the type of player and personality the Mavericks need to complement Cooper Flagg in this new era, and defensive concerns could be mitigated through Dallas' elite wing defense and rim protection.
He'd also get to be mentored by Irving to eventually take the mantle as the full-time starting point guard if his development stayed on track, which is about as good as it gets in terms of learning from one of the best to ever do it. Dallas isn't going to find a guard as elite as Wagler in this draft that still has the versatility to play off-ball and in between Flagg and Irving when needed, while still being able to be the main point guard in the second unit at times.
Mavericks can't pass on Wagler if they land outside top four or five
There's certainly the chance he's off the board by the time Dallas is making their pick, but the Mavericks have to consider him toward the top of their draft board, and should only pass on him if they simply have to take the best talent available because of landing inside the top-four or five of this loaded class.
For a draft expert like Grubel to say Wagler's best fit is in Dallas, this can't be taken for granted, as guys like Grubel watch countless hours of college basketball every year, and are smarter about player's skillset and potential fit compared to the average NBA media member.
Dallas will need lottery luck two years in a row to land someone like Wagler, but they definitely don't need to jump all the way to the No. 1 pick for this to occur, which makes him the best realistic prospect for Dallas at this point before the draft lottery. He'd fit the Flagg timeline extremely well, and seems like the type of guy who would get along with Flagg off the court as well, as they could potentially form into a tantalizing duo one day.
