Mavericks' tank puts them in prime position to land the draft's top sharpshooter

With the NBA Playoffs no longer being a possibility for the Dallas Mavericks, the tank is on, and the focus should shift to the offseason, with a major focus on the 2026 NBA Draft and free agency. There have already been countless predictions on who the Mavericks will take in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft, and Bleacher Report has them selecting freshman guard Keaton Wagler of the Illinois Fighting Illini in a recent mock draft.

Mavericks predicted to land the draft's top shooter

Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman predicted the Mavericks will select Wagler with the sixth overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft and gave an NBA comparison to Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets.

"Keaton Wagler has firmly inserted himself into the lottery discussion with shotmaking, footwork for creating space, clever finishes and mature decision-making," Wasserman said of Wagler.

Wagler's freshman season has been outstanding at Illinois. In 34 games (all starts), Wagler has averaged nearly 18 points per game, while shooting 45 percent from the field. A big weapon in Wagler's game is shooting the three, from where he shoots over 40 percent. Wagler also averaged nearly five rebounds per game, to go along with over four assists. Wagler is a key reason why Illinois is currently in the Sweet 16 of March Madness.

The Mavericks have Cooper Flagg as their star wing of the future, but the team still has major concerns about their guard play. With Kyrie Irving aging and uncertainty with a player option after next season, there's no guarantee he will be around for a long time in Dallas with Flagg on board. This is why drafting a young, promising guard in this year's draft, like Wagler, is a perfect idea.

Wagler will likely be available somewhere to take from the 6 to 10 overall selections, where the Mavericks will likely land. If Illinois goes further in the NCAA Tournament because of Wagler, his draft stock could increase into the top five.

Despite Wagler's unreal shooting, Wasserman is concerned about some areas of his game.

Wasserman mentioned that Wagler's lack of explosion and strength can restrict him. Wagler has converted under 40 percent of his drives to the hoop, and his 190-pound body may not give him enough to explode and drive through defenders, despite being 6-foot-6. In the end, Wagler is learning as he goes and uses his 3-point shooting as his most reliable way to score.

How Keaton Wagler can help fix Dallas' biggest problem

The Mavericks need positional size and shooting badly at the guard position, and that is where Wagler can be a weapon. John Poulakidas, Dallas' recent two-way signing, has turned into an underappreciated 3-point shooter this season, but the Mavericks still need tons more help in this area.

Wagler would be an excellent option to give them even more shooting, and fans would fall in love with his game right away. Dallas' shooting has been an issue all season, and Wagler has the firepower to help turn things around for them from beyond the arc.

"His production has remained consistent, and his shooting, craftiness, and IQ may be strong enough for Wagler to compensate for athletic limitations and problem-solve quick defenders," Wasserman said.

More predictions will be made on who the Mavericks will select at the 2026 NBA Draft in the first round, and fans can't wait to see how things unfold. It will all depend on where the Mavericks are picking in the first round, and their fate will be decided in less than two months at the draft lottery. In the meantime, Wagler is one name to keep an eye on as he leads his team through the NCAA Tournament.