Mavericks' P.J. Washington trade now has unexpected upside after lottery reform

With today's news of the new NBA Draft Lottery reform being approved to prevent tanking, the Dallas Mavericks' P.J. Washington trade just received an intriguing wrinkle that fans will be keeping an eye on all season long. Dallas traded their 2027 first-round pick (top-two protected) to the Charlotte Hornets as part of this deal for Washington in 2024, and the Mavericks now have a much better chance to keep this pick due to the major changes to the lottery that were passed on Thursday.

It used to seem like this pick was gone forever for Dallas when they made the deal, since they were expecting to be a contender at this point, but that's no longer the case. They now have an unexpected chance to keep this selection.

Masai Ujiri has made it clear that the Mavericks are in no rush to win, as they are focused on the future. While they won't be tanking by any means, it isn't NBA Finals or bust in Dallas. This gives them a real shot to be in the hunt to keep their 2027 first-round pick due to the way the lottery odds will look.

The new lottery odds did the Mavericks a favor

In the 2026 draft lottery, teams in the 9-14 range had extremely slim odds of jumping up in the draft. The Chicago Bulls ultimately jumped up to the No. 4 pick in the draft despite having the ninth-best odds, but every team below them stayed put.

It used to be extremely hard to jump up into the top four with the way the old lottery was designed, but things are changing. Teams can now move up to any spot rather than just the top four.

The 2027 NBA Draft Lottery is going to be extremely intense due to the new odds, and if the Mavericks aren't a top-seven team in the Western Conference next season, they will more than likely be part of the lottery. They have a chance to defy expectations and improve significantly through the draft, free agency, and trades this summer, but them returning to the NBA Playoffs isn't a guarantee. The West is extremely competitive, and Dallas has a long way to go.

There is going to be tons of movement with this new lottery format, and this could benefit the Mavs majorly.

They could have a chance to bring in another young star to complement Cooper Flagg and whoever they draft this year, and their performance next season will determine how big a chance this is. This would change everything for them, as their rebuild would be expedited significantly.

Top picks in the draft can be franchise-altering. Just look what happened to the Mavericks last year. Had they not won the Draft Lottery, they would be in an extremely rough position. Flagg gave a grieving franchise hope, and we could see a similar effect if the Mavericks snag the No. 1 or 2 pick next summer.

The NBA Draft Lottery is about to change dramatically

The bottom six teams in the lottery now have much better odds of moving up in the draft compared to past years. The NBA flattened the odds considerably, and Dallas could find themselves picking in the top two and ultimately keeping the pick they traded for Washington if the basketball gods bless them once again, as they did in the 2025 lottery when they landed the No. 1 overall pick to later select Flagg.

Just take a look at how much things change for the bottom six teams in the lottery this year compared to next year. The lottery will also expand from 14 to 16 teams, as shown in the chart below, giving more teams the chance to move up.

With these flattened odds, the Mavericks will have a much better chance to keep their 2027 first-round pick that the Hornets currently own. Dallas would have to jump into the top two in order to pull this off, but as shown by the odds above, it won't be impossible.

Even if the Mavericks make the Play-In Tournament, they'll have a shot at keeping their pick. The odds get a bit confusing, but with a reasonable expectation for Dallas being in the play-in, keeping their pick won't be impossible.

If Dallas misses the play-in completely and is an 11-15 seed in the West, their odds will be even better. As long as they're not a bottom-three team in the NBA, the Mavericks would then have a 16.1 percent chance to keep their pick. Not the best odds, but better than what they used to be.

Dallas may still be a lottery team next season

The exciting part of this new lottery format is that Dallas will be in the race to hold onto their pick if they aren't a strong playoff team. Fans will obviously want the team to get back to winning, but building a contender around Flagg isn't going to happen overnight.

You can never say never when it comes to the NBA Draft Lottery, and it would be a major development if the Mavericks could jump into the top two.

They would be adding a top player in next year's draft to their young core, and they'd be in a much better position to compete for titles for years to come. Dallas needs much more help, even with Flagg, before becoming a juggernaut in the West, and this new lottery format could turn the P.J. Washington trade into even more of a win for the Mavericks if they get lucky.

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