Mavericks made one of the biggest lottery blunders with Morez Johnson Jr. reach

Anointing an NBA draftee as a bust before they even step on the hardwood is premature, but calling out a team for making a reach is fair game… and that’s exactly what the Dallas Mavericks did on Tuesday night. Morez Johnson Jr., Dallas’ No. 9 selection, doesn’t scream “bust” by any means, but the pick itself feels far more like a reach than a calculated move.

The problem isn’t just that Johnson Jr. is a reach; it’s what was left on the board when Dallas made the pick. In a lottery filled with high-upside guards and more ideal long-term fits, the Mavericks opted for a safe, redundant archetype instead. That decision alone is why this selection should be framed as the biggest blunder of the lottery.

Why Morez Johnson Jr. was the lottery's biggest reach

What makes the selection particularly puzzling is that Johnson Jr. doesn't offer the same level of upside typically associated with a No. 9 pick. He's coming off a sophomore campaign in which he averaged 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.1 blocks in 25.1 minutes per game. Good production, sure, but not the type that screams future star. He also went just 12-of-35 from beyond the arc, highlighting the offensive limitations that cloud his long-term ceiling.

He was selected largely because of his floor, motor, and intangibles, but his ceiling is far less enticing than many of the prospects drafted around him. The Mavericks used a premium asset on a player whose most likely outcome appears to be that of a quality role player rather than a franchise-altering talent.

Johnson Jr. is, by all means, a solid prospect. But is “solid” what you want with the No. 9 overall pick, especially when it may be the Mavericks’ only lottery selection over the next five years? Not quite.

Why Johnson Jr. feels redundant in the Mavericks' frontcourt

The former Michigan Wolverine profiles as a high-floor prospect, though that isn’t always a positive at No. 9 overall. He offers a high motor, strong rebounding, physical interior scoring, and defensive versatility. But he ultimately projects more as a complementary piece than a foundational one. And that’s fine, just not for a Mavericks team needing more upside.

A complementary piece might be fine on a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs, but not on a 26-win Mavericks squad. Dallas badly needed a strong infusion of youth, specifically a player who could grow alongside Cooper Flagg and profile as a legitimate 1B to his 1A. That’s not Johnson Jr.

Johnson Jr. is a play finisher. He's someone who can clean up offensively, do the dirty work on both ends of the floor, and impact the game without needing many touches. Think Isaiah Stewart or Clint Capela. Solid players, but also archetypes that feel somewhat redundant in Dallas.

The Mavericks' roster already features Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and P.J. Washington. The former two are play finishers in a similar mold, though both are more firmly aligned with the center position. Washington is slightly shorter than Johnson Jr., but brings a similarly impressive wingspan and athletic profile and fills a similar dirty-work role. Unlike Johnson Jr., however, Washington can stretch the floor from beyond the arc.

Now the Mavericks will have to figure out how Johnson Jr. fits alongside Gafford, Lively II, and Washington — not to mention Flagg, who is also a tweener and not a high-level outside shooter. In theory, a future frontcourt of Flagg, Johnson Jr., and Lively II offers tremendous size and length, but it lacks the shooting needed in today’s NBA.

Dallas passed on better fits and higher-upside prospects

In selecting Johnson Jr., Dallas passed on perhaps the cleanest fit on paper in Arizona’s Brayden Burries. The 6-foot-4 guard offers a similar high-floor profile, but with a more seamless positional fit between Kyrie Irving and Flagg at the two. He also brings shooting and perimeter defense. Two major needs for the Mavericks.

Yet Dallas passed on the 20-year-old combo guard, allowing the Milwaukee Bucks to select him at No. 10. Moreover, other talented guard prospects, like Stanford’s Ebuka Okorie, Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson, and Alabama’s Labaron Philon, were still available when the Mavericks were on the clock.

If Dallas was so hellbent on selecting a Michigan prospect to satisfy new head coach Dusty May, or targeting a size/defense archetype often associated with Masai Ujiri, why not take a swing on Aday Mara? The 7-foot-3 center is also somewhat redundant alongside Gafford and Lively II, but he brings a rare physical profile that is nearly unmatched in today’s NBA. He has shown intriguing passing instincts, flashes of shooting touch, and, most importantly… he is 7-foot-3 with a 9-foot-9 standing reach.

This isn’t to say Johnson Jr. is a bad player (he’s not), but he feels more like someone you’d draft in the late teens or even the 20s. Some draft analysts viewed the 20-year-old forward as a lottery-level prospect, but for the Mavericks, he feels far from the right fit and more like a reach than a value selection.

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