Mavericks' expansion draft luck faces its biggest test yet

Expansion to Las Vegas and Seattle has been the hottest NBA topic over the last week, and if history repeats itself, the Dallas Mavericks have luck on their side when it comes to not losing players to this potential expansion draft in 2028. They need all of the good fortune they can get as they try to build a contender around Cooper Flagg, and the expansion draft could prove to be a major threat to that.

FanSided's Josh Cornelissen dove into valuable players each team has lost in previous expansion drafts, and luckily for the Mavericks, teams from around the league haven't poached much of their talent in the expansion drafts since they became a franchise in 1980.

Expansion drafts have rarely hurt the Mavericks

"Dallas has avoided having any meaningful players taken in an expansion draft. They did take forward Arvid Kramer in the 1980 expansion draft, then held onto his rights as he played overseas for the next eight seasons. The Miami Heat then took him first overall in the 1988 expansion draft, but he never returned to the NBA," Cornelissen wrote.

Losing a player who never even played a game for the Mavericks to begin with wasn't a major loss, and to make matters better for Dallas, Kramer never even played in the NBA after the Heat selected him No. 1 overall. This stemmed from the Mavericks giving Miami their first-round pick in the 1988 NBA Draft to select Kramer over other players whom they didn't have room to protect.

Why this expansion draft may finally come back to bite Dallas

Now, nearly 40 years later, Mavericks fans will be hoping for their track record to remain unchanged if the vote passes to expand the NBA to Seattle and Las Vegas. Dallas will only be able to protect eight players (if the rules from the 2004 expansion draft persist), and with how deep the Mavericks have been over the last few years, this could force them to expose a valuable role player.

Jason Kidd has typically rolled with nine-man rotations as head coach of the Mavericks, but when looking at their current roster, they would likely lose a difference-maker if the draft were held today. Players like Flagg, Dereck Lively II, and Kyrie Irving are players they would obviously keep, but someone like Marvin Bagley III, Brandon Williams, or Klay Thompson could be a coveted piece elsewhere if Dallas chose not to protect them.

The Mavericks wouldn't lose a star by any means, but they'd lose the type of player that playoff teams hate to give up. Depth is vital to winning in the postseason, and Dallas could be forced to part ways with one of its high-impact players.

Expansion drafts put teams in a tough position when it comes to future roster-building, as they're at risk of losing players for nothing, while also potentially hurting a player's feelings if they don't get protected. Drama or losing a valuable role player is the last thing that the Mavericks need, and fans will be hoping that history remains on their side in 2028.

If history remains unchanged, Dallas will walk away without losing anyone in the potential expansion draft. But this time around, the stakes are much higher, and they could lose the type of player they'd hate to replace.