Mavericks can't ignore the writing on the wall for P.J. Washington

The Dallas Mavericks boast one of the NBA’s most tantalizing young talents in Cooper Flagg. Just months after turning 19, Flagg is already averaging over 20 points per game. Yet Dallas’ roster construction hasn’t been optimized around him, and his most frequent frontcourt partner, P.J. Washington, has statistically been his least effective pairing.

The warning signs may already be flashing for Washington. Not because he’s a bad player (14.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game say otherwise), but because he's the wrong fit next to the Mavericks’ franchise cornerstone, Flagg. Washington complemented the defensively limited but offensively brilliant Luka Doncic well, yet his skillset overlaps with Flagg’s, a redundancy that has cratered his on/off numbers.

The Luka Doncic–P.J. Washington pairing worked

In his first half-season with the Mavericks, Washington made an immediate impact. Dallas was 6.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, good for the 82nd percentile league-wide. The pairing with Doncic was even more promising, posting a +9.2 net rating despite Washington only arriving at the trade deadline.

The following season, the Mavericks were 5.8 points per 100 possessions better with the former Charlotte Hornets forward on the floor, which ranked in the 84th percentile league-wide. And before Doncic was moved midway through the 2024–25 campaign, the Doncic–Washington pairing carried a +11.0 net rating.

The point is clear: Washington thrived in a Doncic-centric Dallas Mavericks system. This season, however, his on/off numbers have flipped dramatically. Dallas has been 7.1 points per 100 possessions worse with Washington on the floor, placing in just the 18th percentile league-wide. The offensive drop-off has been especially severe, with the Mavericks scoring 7.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when the Kentucky product is on the court.

The Cooper Flagg fit is much more complicated

Worst of all, the pairing of Flagg and Washington has posted a brutal -10.7 net rating.

Among Dallas duos with at least 300 minutes together, that ranks third-worst on the roster. The offensive output has been especially poor, with the pairing producing just a 104.4 offensive rating. By comparison, Flagg’s most common wing partner, Max Christie, sits at a -5.5 net rating with a 109.8 offensive rating.

Considering the Mavericks are among the league’s worst teams this season, it’s inevitable that many two-man lineup net ratings will be negative. Still, the extent of Washington’s decline is concerning, particularly after Dallas committed to him with a four-year, $90 million extension this past offseason.

Essentially, the Mavericks bet on Washington becoming Flagg’s long-term partner in the frontcourt. Yet while the 19-year-old forward has posted roughly league-average on/off numbers on a porous Dallas team, Washington has trended sharply in the opposite direction. It may already be time for the Mavericks to start kicking the tires on alternatives to the Flagg-Washington pairing.