Keaton Wagler vs Kingston Flemings is a March Madness gift that could decide Mavericks draft

The Dallas Mavericks are working their way down the standings to get into position to draft another game-changing player in the 2026 NBA Draft. The NCAA Tournament is poised to give them a scouting gift: a showdown between two of the players they may be deciding between come June, Keaton Wagler and Kingston Fleming.

Step one in drafting a top young player is to lose enough games to fall into the lottery and, ideally, be bad enough to have the best chance of landing a top pick. The Mavericks did just barely enough losing to leap all the way up last year and draft Cooper Flagg first overall; now they'd like to give him a long-term co-star.

Dallas doesn't know where it will be drafting from yet, and won't until the official draft lottery in May. What they do know is that they are nearly a lock for a Top 10 pick, and this year's draft is absolutely loaded with talented freshmen waiting to transform a team.

The Mavericks have plenty of draft prospects to choose from

If the Mavericks leap up again and get a Top-3 pick, they'll be looking at the likes of AJ Dybantsa and Darren Peterson. If they land slightly lower, in the 4-8 range, they will most likely be deciding between a plethora of extremely talented guards, poised to play with and to ultimately replace Kyrie Irving. Keaton Wagler, Kinston Flemings, Darius Acuff and Mikel Brown Jr. are all top-tier draft prospects awaiting the teams lucky enough to land in the Top 10 of this year's draft.

Deciding between those guards will be a difficult task for any team, but the Mavericks may be gifted an extra opportunity to take a close look. The NCAA Tournament sets the stage closest to the NBA by pitting draft prospects in high-pressure environments against top-tier talent. How a player performs in that crucible is valuable information in evaluating them holistically.

If that's the case, then pitting two such prospects against one another is scouting perfection. And with the newly-announced NCAA Tournament bracket, March Madness will serve that perfect matchup up to the Mavericks on a silver platter.

Wagler vs Fleming could decide the Mavs' next draft pick

Kingston Fleming was a highly-regarded prospect who joined a veteran and successful Houston Cougars team that barely lost in the national championship game last season. In most situations, such a player would slowly grow into a role as the season went on; instead, Fleming became their best offensive player early on this season and shot up draft boards as he put up wave after wave of top-tier performances.

A fearless scorer, Flemings is averaging 16.4 points, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 39.2 percent from deep. He is a stud on both ends of the court, earning the trust of a Hall of Fame coach and spearheading a team with a real shot at a national title.

The way the bracket shakes out, Flemings and Houston are on track to face Illinois and Keaton Wagler in the Sweet Sixteen. Wagler has been this year's surprise breakout, a player ranked outside of the Top-100 freshmen coming into the season who is now a lock to go Top-10 in the draft.

Wagler is averaging 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists as a 6'6" combo guard capable of playing on the ball or moving around off of it, as he has done both for a Fighting Illini team with another on-ball star in Ky Boswell.

Who should the Mavericks draft?

Both players look like future All-Star guards in the NBA; the question is which of them is the better fit for the Mavericks? Is it Flemings' shotmaking and defense, or Wagler's shooting and size?

That decision will take time to make, but Dallas should lock into the Sweet 16 if Illinois and Houston do end up facing off. How they play against one another and their talented teams (both Top 10 teams in the nation) will provide valuable draft intel for the Mavs' scouting group.

It should also be a lot of fun. March Madness is where heroes are born, and the Mavericks hope they find the future of their backcourt during these next few weeks of games.