ESPN pushes Mavericks toward a draft move they almost never make

The NBA Draft landscape is changing. Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) is playing a major role in that shift, allowing unheralded players to build their value at powerhouse programs while also keeping prospects in college longer than ever. The result is an older draft pool, particularly toward the end of the first round and into the second. In ESPN’s latest mock draft, that trend shows up with the Dallas Mavericks projected to select an upperclassman for just the second time since 2018.

ESPN has the Mavericks selecting Joshua Jefferson 30th overall using a first-round pick from the Oklahoma City Thunder acquired in the Anthony Davis trade.

Joshua Jefferson’s rise from unranked recruit to first-round prospect

Jefferson, a 22-year-old senior, averaged 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game for the Iowa State Cyclones. But he wasn’t always this productive. A product of the NIL-era development path, Jefferson began his career at Saint Mary's, where he averaged just 2.2 points per game as a freshman.

The 6-foot-8 forward was an unranked recruit out of Henderson, Nevada, choosing to join a respected but under-the-radar Gaels basketball team. After averaging just 8.8 minutes per game as a freshman, Jefferson saw his role grow to 25.0 minutes per contest as a sophomore, improving across the board.

He later transferred to Iowa State, likely for a bigger platform, though at the time, he wasn’t even considered a top-100 transfer in the 2024 class.

Nonetheless, Jefferson took a step forward as a junior, showcasing his point-forward skill set, before fully blossoming as a senior and elevating himself into first-round consideration. As such, the Nevada native stands as a clear example of how NIL has benefited college players.

And, as reflected in ESPN’s projection, Jefferson is now positioned to capitalize on his winding, but ultimately productive path. The Mavericks could benefit as well.

Like many teams, Dallas has yet to tap into the advantages of the NIL era fully. It selected Cooper Flagg a year ago. Still, as a consensus No. 1 recruit, Flagg’s rise was already established, and his NIL opportunities boosted his profile financially more than they shaped his trajectory. Jefferson, by contrast, used that system to build his stock.

What Jefferson represents for the Mavericks’ draft philosophy

It’s not just about uncovering a diamond in the rough like Jefferson. For the Mavericks, it’s about having the option to select a plug-and-play contributor late in the first round. The last time Dallas took an upperclassman was in 2023, when it selected Olivier-Maxence Prosper with the 23rd overall pick. But even Prosper fit a more traditional mold, still viewed as a developmental prospect after averaging double figures (12.5 points) in just one collegiate season.

The last true near-finished product the Mavericks selected was Jalen Brunson, 33rd overall in 2018. Brunson, of course, was a junior at Villanova, winning two national championships and emerging as arguably the best player in college basketball during the 2017–18 season, sweeping most major awards. Still, there were concerns that his game wouldn’t translate to the NBA. We now know those concerns were well off the mark.

Nonetheless, it underscores how Dallas has approached the draft in recent years. The franchise has generally prioritized younger, less accomplished prospects with higher ceilings. But as the pool of early entrants continues to shrink, Dallas may be positioned to target more players in the mold of Brunson, and perhaps even Jefferson — proven winners who improved steadily at the collegiate level.

It’s certainly a shift in philosophy, but as ESPN noted in its mock draft, “while still rebuilding, adding a more NBA-ready player with this second first-round selection makes sense directionally.” That assessment fits. The Mavericks need ready-made contributors on the margins, and Jefferson fits that mold. Even if he doesn’t offer the same tantalizing upside as higher-ceiling prospects, he projects as a player capable of contributing from day one.

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