Could there actually be a fourth-year breakout candidate? Well… typically, the answer is not really, but circumstances do matter, and that's exactly why Dallas Mavericks fourth-year center Dereck Lively II is the squad's most overlooked breakout candidate. Lively has shown immense promise, but over three seasons, he's played only 98 games, still tantalizing Mavs fans and the rest of the NBA with the taste of his limitless potential.
Dereck Lively II's fourth year comes with a unique opportunity
Lively has dealt with a litany of injuries, including ankle and knee sprains and even a broken nose, but most notably, several crippling foot injuries. Namely, a stress fracture and subsequent surgery to clean up bone spurs and address persistent swelling in his right foot.
Thus, the former No. 12 overall pick has never really been able to gain steam. Crazy but true: the most consecutive regular-season games Lively has appeared in is 10… Yes, that's real. He did appear in 15 straight contests in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, but still, 15 consecutive appearances isn't exactly a lot.
It just goes to show that Lively has never been able to take off. He hasn't put together a long enough string of appearances to break out. That is why, under these circumstances, Lively's potential breakout is still very much in play, even as he enters his fourth campaign at 22.
As a rookie, the Duke product came in sixth in Rookie of the Year voting despite appearing in just 55 games. He averaged 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in only 23.5 minutes per game, while shooting 74.7 percent from the field. Moreover, he was an important contributor to the Mavericks' surprising 2024 NBA Finals run, appearing in 21 of 22 games and averaging 7.9 points and 7.4 boards per game.
Why Lively's breakout is still in play
Yet as Lively's career progressed, the injuries began to hamper him more and more. He played just 36 games in his sophomore campaign and seven games this past season. He hasn't been able to build on the success of his rookie season, solely because he hasn't been healthy enough to get the opportunity.
Still, Lively showed so much promise despite such a small career sample size. Whether it's his infectious energy, elite touch around the rim, defensive mobility, or even his underrated passing acumen, there's so much to his game that remains untapped.
And that's what makes Lively such an overlooked breakout candidate. It's easy to look at the Mavericks' roster and point to former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher or even Max Christie as candidates to make an obvious leap as they progress in their respective careers.
Even Cooper Flagg could raise his scoring average and fine-tune his efficiency to make an All-NBA leap in Year 2. Yet Lively? He's forgotten in the shuffle despite having arguably the most untapped potential on the roster, only because we've hardly seen him play.
He's entering year four now, which makes this potential breakout easy to overlook, but it's still very possible. Lively is (and has been) on the cusp of a major leap for years now, and after finally getting corrective surgery and taking the time to fully recover, the ingredients are there for the 7-foot-1 big man to put together his much-anticipated breakout campaign.
