Mavericks' surprise playoff push comes with dreadfully dark silver lining

The Dallas Mavericks have flipped the script of their season in the span of a few weeks, and they are knocking on the door of their second straight playoff berth.

While the vibes around the fan base are undoubtedly much lower than we've seen in some time due to Luka Doncic's departure to Los Angeles, Anthony Davis' eagerness to return from his adductor injury in March combined with Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II returning from serious injuries has given the Mavericks new life, and their win on Wednesday night over the Sacramento Kings instilled true excitement into the fan base for the first time in weeks.

Now, Dallas has the chance to make history tonight, as a win over the Memphis Grizzlies would mark the first time that a No. 10 seed has escaped the Play-In Tournament and made the playoffs in NBA history, but clinching a first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder also comes with a dark silver lining that Mavs fans feared as soon as they started bringing everyone back from injury last month.

Making the playoffs could quietly hurt the Mavs in the long-term

If the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies tonight and clinch the playoffs, their first-round draft pick will officially be outside of the draft lottery, and they won't have a chance to jump into the top four. While the Mavericks have had historically bad lottery luck, this year's draft class is deep, and the opportunity to draft Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper (regardless of how low their odds are) would be game-changing.

Dallas would have the No. 15 or 16 pick in the draft if they win tonight (depending on the results of the Hawks-Heat game), and that is a major drop-off from the No. 11, 12, or 13 pick they would get if they were to lose.

None of this is to say that the Mavericks shouldn't go all out to beat the Grizzlies tonight by any means, but considering that most of their future first-round draft capital is gone, it may have been a wiser move to shut down Davis, Lively II, and Gafford rather than bringing them back, and bet on next season rather than trying to make a playoff push just to be forced to play the seventh best regular-season team of all time (68-14) in the Thunder when you're without the leader of the team, Kyrie Irving.

If the Mavericks were to have tanked the remainder of the season rather than push for the playoffs, they would have had a great shot at securing a top-10 pick in the draft, considering how close the Miami Heat, Portland Trail Blazers, and Phoenix Suns were to the Mavs in the standings, and even though there isn't a huge difference between the ninth pick and the 11th, 12th, or 13th pick like they would get if they were to lose tonight, there is a major difference if they were to drop all the way down to the 15th of 16th pick.

Even though the Mavs would be at the bottom of the pack when it comes to their chances of moving up in the lottery, even a small chance at someone like Harper or Flagg would be worth it rather than a short postseason run that is almost guaranteed to end in doom. Even a top-10 pick would have given the Mavericks a bigger selection when it comes to selecting an impact-now player, and they desperately need to hit on this pick, considering how many of their own future first-round picks were traded away to build around Doncic.

In the last six NBA drafts, we have seen a team from outside the top seven in lottery odds (eighth-best odds or worse) jump into the top four five different times, with teams outside of the top nine (10th-best odds or worse) jumping into the top four twice. The odds of a miracle wouldn't be in Dallas' favor to begin with, but considering how dark their future may be without Doncic, even a slim chance at securing a top-10 or top-four pick to potentially draft a young star may have outweighed a play-in run or the chance to battle Oklahoma City.

If the Mavericks were to take down the Grizzlies tonight, they would gain invaluable playoff experience that should benefit their new-look core headlined by Davis, Lively II, and P.J. Washington. Time will tell if it was worth it.