Heat will soon learn Tim Hardaway Jr. lesson Mavericks fans know well

The Dallas Mavericks know Tim Hardaway Jr. can create issues when his jumpers aren't falling, and the Miami Heat will soon find out why after signing him to a one-year contract worth $6.5 million in free agency. THJ is a streaky shooter capable of going ice cold. His below-average defense makes him unplayable when the shots aren’t falling. Miami has limited space. They need Hardaway Jr. to play a crucial role, but will end up disappointed.

The 6’5 wing spent five and a half seasons with the Mavericks. He was acquired in the Kristaps Porzingis trade back in 2019 before being traded to Detroit in 2024. Fans will remember his last stint in Dallas was playing a limited role in the NBA Finals run. Dallas was outscored by 35 points in his 178 playoff minutes, and Jason Kidd was quick to bench him if the shots weren’t falling.

THJ is a boom-or-bust player. He will have nights where he scores 30 points, and others where he nets five on 15 shots. His defensive issues make things worse. If Hardaway Jr. isn’t shooting well, he must be taken off the floor.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will have lows with the Heat

Trading away THJ didn’t work for Dallas. They got back Quentin Grimes, who lasted just half a season before being traded for Caleb Martin. None of that panned out, but Hardaway Jr. is also on his fourth team in four years.

Contenders keep dumping Hardaway Jr. after they realize he’s an inconsistent shooter who will fire away until his team is out of the contest when the shots aren’t falling. He averaged 13.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 26.6 minutes per game last season for the Nuggets. THJ shot over 40 percent from 3-point range, but his minutes and production dipped in the playoffs. Denver lost his last 89 minutes by 18 points as the Timberwolves bounced the Nuggets in the opening round.

The Heat just traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Teams only give up a massive haul like that to be a title contender. They clearly view THJ as a key piece of that puzzle, but it will end in disappointment. His defensive issues will be more pronounced in the playoffs, and the inconsistent shooting will be maddening. Mavs fans wanted to tear their hair out often when Hardaway Jr. was on the team, and things have only gotten worse for the 34-year-old.

Over the last five years, THJ has rated as a below-league-average player by win shares per 48 minutes and produced just 0.2 value over replacement player (VORP) per year. Expecting him to suddenly be a difference-maker on a title contender is unrealistic. Mavericks fans know, and the Heat will quickly find out.

The Dallas Mavericks were eager to move on from Tim Hardaway Jr., and he’s struggled to find a home since his departure. The boom-or-bust game as a microwave scorer is not a hot commodity in the NBA. The Heat needed shooting, but will be disappointed in THJ’s production. Live and learn.

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