Cooper Flagg's Rookie of the Year fate is already written in the stars

The Rookie of the Year race has become one of the NBA’s most tightly contested awards. Even with the regular season over, the debate between the Dallas Mavericks’ Cooper Flagg and the Charlotte Hornets’ Kon Knueppel is far from settled. But history, especially in recent seasons, suggests the outcome may already be clear.

Voters already showed us this exact Rookie of the Year script

Just two years ago, Victor Wembanyama swept all 99 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year over Chet Holmgren. But despite the unanimous result, Holmgren’s production made the race far more competitive than the voting suggested.

Holmgren appeared in all 82 games for the 57-win Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 blocks, and 1.6 three-pointers per game. He backed that production by shooting 53.0 percent from the field and 37.0 percent from beyond the arc.

The Gonzaga product was also an analytics darling, ranking top 30 in the league in metrics like box plus-minus, true shooting percentage, and win shares. Just as importantly, his impact translated to winning, with Oklahoma City jumping from the 10th seed the year before to the No. 1 seed during his rookie season.

Still, Wembanyama swept the award by averaging 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.6 blocks, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. Yet his efficiency lagged, as he shot 46.5 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from three, while also committing 3.7 turnovers per game (the second-most in the league), all on a 22-win San Antonio Spurs team.

The Cooper Flagg-Kon Knueppel race is a copy of that race

The comparison is impossible to ignore. This year’s Rookie of the Year race between Flagg and Knueppel closely mirrors the dynamic between Wembanyama and Holmgren.

Like his historical counterpart, Knueppel excelled in advanced analytics, finishing top 30 in box plus-minus, true shooting percentage, and win shares. He paired that with 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, while leading the league in three-pointers made. Moreover, his impact showed up in the standings, helping the Charlotte Hornets improve from 19 wins to 44.

On the other hand, Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, flashing superstar upside with back-to-back 51- and 45-point performances. Yet, like Wembanyama, his efficiency lagged, as the reigning No. 1 overall pick shot 46.8 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from three, ranking just 166th out of 206 qualified players in true shooting percentage.

Flagg also played for a 26-win Mavericks team that has declined in each of the past three seasons. To put that into perspective, those 26 wins mark the franchise’s second-fewest in a season this millennium.

Why Cooper Flagg fits the same Rookie of the Year pattern

But in the end, Rookie of the Year has never come down to team success, true shooting percentage, or even win shares. If it did, Holmgren would have taken home the 2023–24 award over Wembanyama. Instead, the Spurs' sensation received all 99 first-place votes, leaving no doubt about the result.

Thus, the criteria for Rookie of the Year should remain consistent. The success of Knueppel and the Hornets, along with his elite shooting metrics, should not dominate the conversation. They certainly deserve recognition, but history suggests raw statistics and narrative momentum have always carried more weight in the voting. This year should be no different.

Flagg leads all rookies in points per game while ranking in the top five in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. That combination of production and highlight-reel dominance mirrors what voters rewarded just two years ago, when Wembanyama swept Rookie of the Year with all 99 first-place votes.

Wembanyama’s case was built on the same foundation, eye-popping production, viral moments, and undeniable star power, even as efficiency and team record trailed Holmgren's. Flagg checks those same boxes this season. With that precedent already set, the Flagg vs. Knueppel debate effectively answers itself.

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