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Dallas Mavericks are virtual lock to make playoffs heading into final week

Dallas Mavericks Luka Doncic Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks Luka Doncic Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

The Dallas Mavericks have won four straight and ten of their last 12 games. Superstar Luka Doncic has the team heating up at the right time. The Mavs are 12 games over .500, but still fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.

On the morning of May 10, Dallas sits fifth in the Western Conference. They are just two games up on the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers. Only the top six teams in each conference will advance directly to the playoffs this year. Seven faces eight in the play-in tournament with the winner grabbing the seventh seed. The loser battles the winner of the nine versus ten game for the eighth seed.

The Mavericks have four games left in the regular season. Things wrap up on Sunday with the play-in tournament taking place next week. What are the odds that the Mavs avoid the play-in? Where will they end up in the standings? Let us take a closer look at the odds.

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Dallas Mavericks are a virtual lock to make the playoffs

Basketball-Reference’s odds have Dallas at a 99.6 percent chance to qualify for the playoffs. They are virtually three games up on the Lakers because they hold the tiebreaker. Both teams have four games this week.

The Mavs sit at 83.0 percent to finish fifth in the Western Conference. They are favored to play the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs heading into the final week.

Basketball-Reference gives Dallas a 2.2 percent chance of being in the play-in tournament. In 1.2 percent of their simulations, the Mavericks win the seven against eight game and advance as the seventh seed.

ESPN has the odds of Dallas being in the play-in slightly higher. They put it at 4.1 percent of the time. Both Portland and Los Angeles must pass the Mavs in the standings for that to happen. Both teams face tougher schedules and have ground to make up.

The Dallas Mavericks have a favorable schedule in the final week. Every game counts as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. Stay tuned for plenty more.

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