Dallas Mavericks: Examining the odds of the team making the playoffs

The Dallas Mavericks have played well through the month of November. Let us take a look at their odds of making the playoffs this season.

The Dallas Mavericks have surprised many this season. They stated their goal of reaching the playoffs in the offseason. Some scoffed at that notion after the team won 33 games a season ago. That tune has changed quickly.

The Mavericks earned a 120-113 win in Phoenix over the Suns on Friday. That was their final game in November. They finished the month with nine wins, thanks in large part to Luka Doncic. The 20-year-old averaged a 30-point triple-double over the 14 games.

The Mavs are 12-6 and tied for fourth place in the Western Conference so far. Let us take a look at the odds of them reaching their goal this season.

History

John Schuhmann of NBA.com examined the data from the last 20 seasons entering this one. He found a strong correlation between a team’s record after their first 20 games and them making the playoffs. Fans can read his entire article here.

Teams with 12 or more wins after 20 games have qualified for the playoffs 92 percent of the time in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have 12 victories in their first 18 games making them strong favorites to reach the postseason.

Here is a look at two predictive models as well.

FiveThirtyEight’s predictions

FiveThirtyEight uses their RAPTOR player ratings to predict the final regular season standings. It is updated after every game.

According to their model, the Dallas Mavericks sit with a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their predicted record is 50-32.

ESPN’s BPI

ESPN uses its Basketball Power Index to run simulations of the season each day.

They predict the Mavs will finish 49-33. ESPN has their playoff odds at 99.4 percent and a 1.5 percent chance of winning the championship this season.

The Dallas Mavericks are a near-lock to make the playoffs after 18 games. Few saw that coming heading into the season. The superstar turn by Luka Doncic coupled with an improved supporting cast has the Mavs in prime position. Fans should stay tuned for what is going to be an exhilarating year in Dallas.