Dallas Mavericks: Breaking down the odds of keeping the pick

The Dallas Mavericks traded away this year’s first round pick when moving up to get Luka Doncic last year. The trade left the pick top five protected, so what are the odds the Mavs keep their pick?

No matter what happens tomorrow, Dallas Mavericks fans need to remember one very important detail: we have Luka Doncic. When the Mavs traded up two spots in last year’s draft to select Luka Doncic with the third overall pick, the Atlanta Hawks wanted the 5th overall pick and the following year’s first round pick in return from Dallas.

The Mavs agreed to the deal with the stipulation that the pick be top five protected in 2019. In other words, if the Mavs pick falls in the top five this year (or rather the top four), they get to keep the pick and instead will have it convey to the Hawks next year with a diminished protection at that time. If something goes wrong and the Mavs keep their pick again in 2020, it will be unprotected for Atlanta in 2021.

Dallas will have lottery balls in the running for the first, second, third and fourth overall picks in the 2019 NBA Draft. Although their record places them with the 9th best odds, there was a three-way tie at the 7th spot so the Mavs have the same statistical odds as the 7th and 8th worst teams as well.

This little coin toss for the lottery actually ended up helping the Mavs who don’t lose any odds on the top four, but get the earlier pick in the second round because of it.

So what are the Mavs chances of keeping their pick?

This year, the NBA Draft Lottery has changed things up, choosing to select the top four picks in the draft instead of the top three like they have in the past. This gives lottery teams increased odds of landing in the top four than what it used to be, something Adam Silver did in order to try to dissuade teams from the tanking mentality.

This year, the three teams with the lowest records in the league get the same odds at the number one overall pick. They all have a 14% chance at landing Zion Williamson. After those three, the numbers go down. Fourth place has a 12.5% chance, fifth has a 10.5% shot, sixth has a 9% chance and then seventh, eighth and ninth all share a 6% chance at getting the future star from Duke.

Dallas has the ninth best odds, leaving them with the chance at getting Zion at about 1 in 17. The Mavs also have a 26% chance of landing in the top 4. The odds are clearly not in the Mavs favor which would stand up historically as well. Of the teams in the lottery, the only team who has had a longer drought from the top overall pick than the Mavs (1981) is the Atlanta Hawks (1975).

The Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies have yet to have a number one pick in the draft, but both franchises began more recently than the Mavs most recent top overall picks. The worst Draft lottery snub in NBA history came at the Mavs expense in 1993 when Dallas had the worst record in the league when the next worst team had twice as many wins as the Mavs on the season.

In that draft, the Orlando Magic got the top overall pick despite going .500 on the season and missing the playoffs by way of a tiebreaker. The Mavs fell to fourth in the draft somehow. Of course, the Mavs were the recipients of the league trying to figure out the best way to do the draft lottery.

The Mavs had the worst record in the league again the next year but only managed the 2nd pick.

The Dallas Mavericks have a little better than one-fourth odds to keep their pick in this draft. We are all hoping for a miracle here, but as I said at the beginning, we can always look back and say hey, at least we got Luka Doncic.