Past Picks Show Dallas Mavericks Can Still Find Value at Number Five Spot

After a long wait, we now know where the Mavericks will be drafting. Some fans are disappointed that Dallas fell out of the top three. But a quick glance through NBA draft history shows that teams can still find value at the number five slot. In fact, some of the best players in NBA history have been drafted at number five.

I looked at players drafted number five overall since 1995. The results should cheer up any Mavericks fan who is feeling blue about Dallas falling in the draft order. Don’t get me wrong, the number one pick would have been better. It’s always nice to have first choice.

But as you’ll see, picking this high in the draft almost always results in a quality NBA player. The busts are rare, and you get an all-star about half the time. I divided the 20 picks up into four categories–hall-of-famers, all-stars, quality rotation players, and busts. I chose the 20 year period of 1995-2015 because I wanted a large sample size and felt it unfair to evaluate the picks from the last couple years.

Hall-of-Famers

Kevin Garnett (1995), Ray Allen (1996), Vince Carter (1998), and Dwyane Wade (2003) were all selected at number five overall.  At some point in their careers they were all top ten players in the league. All four are going to the Basketball Hall of Fame. The Mavericks would be lucky to end up with any player comparable to this quartet.

All Stars

Kevin Love (2008), Devin Harris (2004), and DeMarcus Cousins (2010) have all made at least one All Star Game, with Love and Cousins appearing in multiple showcases. No one would mistake these guys for number one options on a championship team, but they’ve shown the ability to be highly productive as number one options at some point in their careers.

Love has had significant postseason success, and Harris has been a valuable piece on eight playoff teams. Only Cousins has yet to experience the playoffs, but that may have more to do with Sacramento’s lack of direction than his talent. (An Achilles injury kept him out of the postseason this year with New Orleans)

Quality Rotation Players

Tony Battie (1997), Mike Miller (2000), Jason Richardson (2001), Raymond Felton (2005), Jeff Green (2007), Ricky Rubio (2009), and Jonas Valanciunas (2011) have all carved out quality NBA careers. None of these players transformed their franchise, but they have either contributed to playoff teams or been a solid rotation player for multiple years.

Miller was able to win two championships as a sniper with LeBron James and the Miami Heat. If you’re a Mavericks fan, you’re hoping the number five pick turning out like this is the worst case scenario. Because the only way this pick goes bad is if they end up like our last group.

Busts or Incomplete

Jonathan Bender (1999) only played in 262 games in ten seasons, only starting 28 of them. Nikoloz Tskitishvilli (2002) was out of the league after four seasons. Shelden Williams (2006) was able to carve out a nine-year career with seven different teams, but never averaged more than 5.5 points per game after his rookie year. Thomas Robinson (2012) is out of the league after only five years.

Alex Len (2013), Dante Exum (2014), and Mario Hezonja (2015) haven’t distinguished themselves yet, but I’m not willing to give up on them yet (especially Hezonja). I think all three will get a change of scenery next season and may flourish on their new team.

Next: Two Trades the Dallas Mavericks Could Make in the Draft

If you want to get statistical about this, the Mavericks have a 20% chance of drafting a hall of famer at number five. There’s a 35% chance they draft an all-star, and a 70% chance of drafting a quality rotation player. Those are odds I can live with.