The Dallas Mavericks Best, Worst, and Most Realistic Draft Scenario
By Kohl Rast
The Dallas Mavericks did everything right this season, giving young guys plenty of minutes, competing in as many games as possible, and still finishing third to last in the league. How can they maximize or minimize this opportunity?
This is perhaps the most heavily anticipated NBA Draft in more than 20 years for the Dallas Mavericks and, with the advances in social media and other life sharing opportunities in the world, this one is undoubtedly the most talked about.
A year after snagging Dennis Smith Jr. with the 9th overall pick, the Mavs are feeling good about their drafting abilities. Add in the fact that this year will result in a likely top 4 pick and the excitement multiplies.
Mavs fans have seen a lot of bad drafts in team history and have missed out on a lot of good players because of reaching on college all-stars or looking overseas when the best players may have just been down the road.
No matter what the past has shown, the Mavs have a chance to get a franchise player this year. With the third best odds in the draft and a worst case pick being the sixth overall, there is no doubt that a good player will be available for Dallas.
Let’s take a look at the best case scenario for the Mavs, the worst case scenario, and the one that is looking most likely at this point.
Best Case Scenario
The Mavs best case scenario will either come true or be taken away on May 15 when the Draft Lottery takes place. On that day, the Mavs will know if they have a chance to take one of the top two players in the draft: DeAndre Ayton and Luka Doncic.
For Dallas, I have Ayton ranked ahead of Doncic but I feel that either of these players instantly make the team significantly better. After the top two, the draft order becomes a little more murky.
Because of all this, the best case scenario is definitely for Dallas to get their ping-pong ball selected first or second. With that being a realistic possibility, the Mavs best case scenario is something that could actually happen and that is pretty awesome.
Worst Case Scenario
The Mavs could realistically be as high as number 1 but they could also fall as low as 6. If I am picking for Dallas, either 5 or 6 is the worst case scenario, obviously. After Ayton and Doncic are off the board, I feel it is a small drop off to Marvin Bagley III.
After that, the water gets a little murkier with Mo Bamba, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Michael Porter Jr. arguably making up the next tier. My worst case scenario would be the Mavs reaching for someone out of these two (or three) tiers with this pick.
If the Mavs shot for someone with high potential like Miles or Mikal Bridges, I would not be on board. Another concern would be to draft someone who positionally doesn’t fit well like Trae Young or Collin Sexton, if the Mavs would even consider one of those two. I don’t see this as a likely possibility, but it would be the worst thing the Mavs could do.
Most Realistic Scenario
The realistic scenario for the Mavs is the third pick overall. Dallas has the best odds to take the third pick and so that would make it the most realistic option. With two teams picking ahead of Dallas, the likely scenario puts Doncic and Ayton just out of reach for the Mavs.
At that point, the obvious selection has to be Marvin Bagley III, who is an incredible basketball player and will help the Mavs with rebounding, scoring, and explosiveness. His defense isn’t perfect, which is a concern, but his strengths outweigh his weaknesses for me.
If he is not available at three then the Mavs lucked out and have a chance at Luka Doncic or DeAndre Ayton. The fact that I can say that in the most realistic scenario section should get Mavs fans excited in itself.
Next: Why the Dallas Mavericks Should Consider Michael Porter Jr.
The draft is still a long ways away, but draft talk is still just heating up. Dallas will have a big decision to make, but for now all we can do is speculate.