Mavericks Milestone Watch: Dirk Nowitzki to pass very significant company

Entering the 2014-15 season, Dirk Nowitzki is about to pass some big names on multiple career lists.

Nowitzki, who’s entering his 17th season, is 10th on the NBA career scoring list and is about to leap three hall-of-famers in the near future.

With Chandler Parsons on the team, expect Nowitzki’s scoring to take a minor hit, but he’ll still be able to jump to 7th all time at season’s end.

Dirk scored 1,735 points last season while averaging 21.7 a game. Even if he scores 1,500 points, he’ll easily hit the 7th spot as he’s just 624 points away.

First on the list is “The Dream” Hakeem Olajuwon, who’s sits in 9th with 26,946 points. Dirk is 161 points away from passing The Dream and let’s just say he’ll average 18 points a game to start. If he does that, he’ll pass Olajuwon by game nine which would be on Thursday, Nov. 13 at home vs Philly. If he averages more or less, the pass could still come at home. He could pass Olajuwon vs Miami (Nov. 9), vs Kings (Nov. 11) or vs Minnesota (Nov. 15). Either way, expect it to come at home with an uproar from the Maverick faithful. Still, I’m predicting Nov. 13 vs Sixers.

Sitting in 8th is Elvin Hayes with 27,313 points. Dirk is 528 points from passing Hayes. You’ll have to wait for this one to come around, but if he keeps up the 18 points per game, I’m predicting he’ll pass the fellow power forward in the Mavericks 30th game, again at home vs Atlanta on Monday, Dec. 22. You could see it come against the Spurs (Dec. 20) at home or in Phoenix (Dec. 23). The Mavericks play five of six at home during this time, starting with the Spurs, so there’s a high chance Dirk passes Hayes at home, earning yet another standing ovation within the American Airlines Center.

Dirk won’t score 1,800 points this season, which he needs to pass Shaq for 6th, so we’ll leave that until next season, but for now, he’ll pass Moses Malone for 7th. Malone scored 27,409 points in his 20-year career. Dirk is 624 points away from passing the once great center. At 18 points a game, Dirk will pass Malone five games after passing Hayes. Unfortunately, this pass will come on the road against Boston on Friday Jan. 2. The Mavericks play three straight on the road so it could come against LeBron James in Cleveland (Jan. 4) or in Brooklyn (Jan. 5). Again, if he’s scoring more, there’s a chance it could come at home with the Mavericks playing five of six before the 2014 year comes to an end.

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CAREER SCORING

7. Moses Malone (20 years)- 27,409

PPG- 20.6

Games Played- 1,329

Field Goals- 9,435

Free Throws- 8,531

Threes- 8

8. Elvin Hayes (19 years)- 27,313

PPG- 21.0

Games Played- 1,303

Field Goals- 10,976

Free Throws- 5,356

Threes- 5

9. Hakeem Olajuwon (19 years)- 26,946

PPG- 21.8

Games Played- 1,238

Field Goals- 10,749

Free Throws- 5,423

Threes- 25

10. Dirk Nowitzki (16 years)- 26,786

PPG- 22.5

Games Played- 1,188

Field Goals- 9,407

Free Throws- 6,501

Threes- 1,471

For 9th- Nov. 13 vs PHI (Home)

For 8th- Dec. 22 vs ATL (Home)

For 7th- Jan. 2 @ BOS (Road)

That’s the biggest milestone for Dirk this season, but let’s just note a couple more. He’s also moving up the list in rebounds, field goals, threes, free throws, games played and minutes –

Rebounds and field goals will be the next biggest because Dirk is on pace to hit the 10,000-career mark in both this season. With Shawn Marion and Dwight Howard just ahead of him in boards, he’ll jump from 40th to 37th, passing Sam Lacey and hall-of-famers Dave DeBusschere and Bob Lanier.

Rebounds

Last season- 498

This year’s prediction- 450

Preseason Ranking- 40th

Ranking at end of season- 37th

Dirk has an excellent chance at hitting the 10,000-mark this year in field goals made. He sits 22nd all time with 9,407 made. He’s averaged 589 per season, 650 if you take out three seasons (rookie, lockout, 2012-13). He hit 633 last season, but expect him to hit at least 593 which would make him the 17th player (with Tim Duncan) in NBA history to make 10,000 field goals. He’ll pass Oscar Robertson, Robert Parish, Rick Barry, Patrick Ewing and Dominique Wilkins, and could hit the top-10 two years from now.

Field Goals

Last Season- 633

This year’s prediction- 595

Preseason Ranking- 22nd

Ranking at end of season- 17th

Dirk’s been known as a good three-point shooter and a great one at his height. Sitting at 23rd with 1,471 treys, Dirk had 131 threes last season, his highest since 148 during the 2002-03 season. The Mavericks have a lot of good shooters this year. Expect Parsons and Jameer Nelson to take some threes away from Dirk, but he still has a good chance in hitting 100 of those this year. If that happens, he’ll jump to 17th all time, passing some great sharp shooters in Glen Rice, Eddie Jones, Tim Hardaway, Mike Bibby and Nick Van Exel. He should pass Mike Miller, who’s currently 60 treys ahead. Kyle Korver sits one spot in front of Dirk, so he won’t pass him.

Threes

Last Season- 131

This year’s prediction- 100

Preseason Ranking- 23rd

Ranking at end of season- 17th

Dirk will hit at least 290 free throws this season, after hitting 338 last year. 290 would be good enough to crack the top-10 in career free throws, passing Kareem and Dolph Schayes. Paul Pierce will continue to be in front of Dirk, but he’ll enter next season 9th all time.

Free Throws

Last Season- 338

This year’s prediction- 290

Preseason Ranking- 11th

Ranking at end of season- 9th

Minus his rookie season, the lockout season and two years ago where he missed time, Dirk is averaging 79 games a year. He’s currently 35th with 1,188 games played and will jump to 1,267 played, good for 22nd, but expect Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and yes, even Steve Nash to remain in front. He’ll pass hall-of famers Hakeem Olajuwon and Alex English, and future inductees Dikembe Mutombo and Shaquille O’Neal.

Games Played

Last Season- 80

This year’s prediction- 79

Preseason Ranking- 35th

Ranking at end of season- 25th

Finally, minutes. Dirk has played a total of 42,603 minutes in his career, which amounts to 710 hours or quite simply, 29.5 days. Isn’t that crazy to think, that Dirk, in 16 years, has played for a total of nearly 30 straight days…if players had the stamina to do so Ha! He averaged 33 a game last season and should hit around 31 this year. Tim Duncan is in front of him so Dirk should pass Oscar Robertson and Hakeem for 16th all time. If that total stands true, he’d be 19 minutes away from Moses Malone for one spot higher.

Minutes

Last Season- 32.9, 2,632 minutes

This year’s prediction- 31.0, 2,449 minutes

Preseason Ranking- 18th

Ranking at end of season- 16th

Even Dirk himself wouldn’t have thought he’d be in this spot back in the summer of 1998. To think Dallas’ franchise player, the best player to wear a Maverick uniform will go down as one of the best in NBA history. The young kid from a town called Wurzburg, Germany is already in elite company, but to move past even more big names, it’s just icing on the cake. When he finally hangs up his sneakers, who could be saying Dirk Nowitzki was the greatest player to EVER come through the Dallas area in ANY sport. He’s that awesome.

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