Mavericks Over/Under: Will Chandler Parsons Up his Assists in 2015-16?

As the NBA regular season gets closer to its beginning we at The Smoking Cuban are looking at some key numbers from the Mavericks in 2014-15 and predicting what those figures could look like in 2015-16.

More from The Smoking Cuban

So far we’ve debated such topics as Dirk’s points per game next season and the type of numbers the Mavericks’ leader in points and rebounds will put up.

This time we’re looking at Chandler Parsons and his 2.4 assists per game from 2014-15.

In his first season with the Mavericks, Parsons was relegated to the role of “third-fiddle”, something he was trying to escape when he left the Houston Rockets.

With Monta Ellis out of the picture Parsons will spend a lot more time with the ball in his hands. Will that translate to a jump in assists?

Kohl Rast and I debate the issue:

Mavericks Over/Under: Chandler Parsons’ 2.4 assists

Case for Over

Jay Knodell:

Not only do I believe Chandler Parsons will improve on his average of 2.4 assists a game in his first season with the Mavericks, I predict he will obliterate it.

Now, I’m working under the assumption that he’ll be the same Chandler Parsons physically – at least shortly after the season begins – after finishing the rehabilitation on his surgically repaired knee. But I don’t think it to be too audacious a stance.

If he is himself, and probably even if he isn’t, Parsons will be handed the keys to the offense. Rick Carlisle will get him involved in as many pick-and-roll sets as possible, giving Parsons far more opportunities to both score the ball himself or distribute to open teammates.

Not only do I believe Chandler Parsons will improve on his average of 2.4 assists a game in his first season with the Mavericks, I predict he will obliterate it.

And those open teammates will be far more capable knocking down shots.

Instead of kicking the ball out to Monta Ellis or Rajon Rondo – career 31.4% and 26.3% shooters from long range – Parsons will be dishing to guys like Wesley Matthews and Deron Williams.

Matthews is a career 39.3% shooter from distance and Williams checks in at a respectable 35.8%. That’s going to make a difference.

Parsons averaged 3.5 and 4.0 assists a night in his final two seasons with the Rockets, teams that finished second in three-point attempts and makes in 2012-13 and first in both categories for the 2013-14 season.

The Mavericks last season were an okay three-point shooting team but they’ll be a much better one this year and it’ll pay off for Parsons in the assists department. Expect him to average over 4.0 a game, setting a new career-high.

Case for Under

Kohl Rast:

It is no secret that the Mavericks are hoping to center the offense around the play of Chandler Parsons this year and, with Monta Ellis’ dribbling finally out of the offense, we should expect to see a more finely-tuned offensive machine as well. But with that change and the ball in Parsons’ hands does that necessarily mean his assist numbers are going to go up?

There are a lot of reasons to believe that his assist numbers are going to be up but I feel that they are actually going to drop just a little bit.

My main reason for this belief is that we don’t know how he is going to fair as the main option on this team. If at any point Chandler Parsons doesn’t deliver on the expectations that have been set for him this year, it shouldn’t be a crazy belief that the Mavericks will turn to a more traditional offense, using a very talented point guard to distribute the ball.

The last argument I feel has to be brought up is exactly the opposite of my previous argument; Rick Carlisle tends to bring individual assist numbers down in his offensive scheme.

I don’t want you to think that I am basing this entire argument on Parsons failure though because I feel that he is going to have a spectacular season.

Whether the ball is going through his hands or not, it has to be noted that the Mavs are set up to be a substantially better passing team this year.

The additions of Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, and Zaza Pachulia to the starting lineup already add three better passing options (not going to get into the Rondo fiasco) than we had last year. Add that to an already underrated passer in Dirk and you get a lineup that could be distributing the ball at a high rate this coming year as a team but not necessarily as individual players.

The last argument I feel has to be brought up is exactly the opposite of my previous argument; Rick Carlisle tends to bring individual assist numbers down in his offensive scheme. When Jason Kidd came to Dallas, he was averaging 9.5 assists per game in his career.

However, in the years he was in Dallas his average dropped to 8.2. this is clearly not a big time dip in production but anyone who watched Kidd as a Sun or a Net before he became a Maverick knows just how impactful he had been and how many double-digit assist games he was capable of.

Jose Calderon averaged only 4.7 assists per game in a Mavs uniform after having an average that low only once previously in his career. Rondo went from 6 straight seasons of averaging 9.8 assists or higher to only 6.5 with the Mavericks.

Obviously there are other contributing factors to each situation and each team that the Mavs put on the floor but in the end the numbers tend to side with the fact that Rick Carlisle’s teams often have a lower assist total. Those are just a few reasons why I believe that Parsons may not be a major threat in the passing game this year.

What do you think?

Next: 41 Wins for the Mavericks Next Year? TSC Staff Reacts to ESPN's NBA Forecast

More from The Smoking Cuban

Home/Mavs News