Mavericks Over/Under: Will Anyone Average 7+ rebounds?

As the NBA regular season gets closer to its beginning we at The Smoking Cuban are looking at some key individual numbers from 2014-15 and predicting what those figures could look like in 2015-16.

So far we’ve looked to see if Dirk Nowitzki can top last year’s scoring numbers and if anyone can replace Monta Ellis‘s output.

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The team ~~landed~~ struck out on DeAndre Jordan and saw Tyson Chandler leave…once again. Both players occupied the NBA’s top five rebounding list.

The center corpse now consists of Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert, and JaVale McGee. No Mavs’ center (Hello Shawn Marion!) outside of Tyson Chandler has averaged seven rebounds per game since 2011.

The highest has been 6.8 during the span. Will that change this year?

We debate the issue below.

Oct 14, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets center JaVale McGee (34) during the first half against the San Antonio Spurs at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Mavericks Over/Under: Mavericks Center 6.8 Rebounds

Case for Over

Kohl Rast:

Over the last few years, saying the Mavericks were a poor rebounding team would be a bit of an understatement. With NBA ranks of 16th, 26th, and 23rd over the last 3 years in team total rebounds per game, the Mavericks definitely have room for improvement.

Adding some depth to the center position and youth around the board should improve the teams rebounding a little bit despite the loss of Tyson Chandler but we are looking at a different topic today. Will the Mavericks have a single player with a rebounding average over 6.8 boards per game?

Personally I feel that someone on the Mavericks roster will have to step up to at least that level for us to stay competitive this year. With our center additions of Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert, and JaVale McGee, the Mavericks will have 3 experienced players that have all spent time as starters for various NBA teams in their career.

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Samuel Dalembert has proven that he can reach that mark in a Mavericks uniform seeing as 6.8 was his average rebounds per game in the one season he spent with the Mavs prior to joining the Knicks organization. Dalembert, however, is the odd man out of the center rotation in my mind.

Next we have McGee who is difficult to bet on to reach any type of rebounding goals until we see him on the court on a consistent basis. That being said, when McGee has been given substantial minutes in his career he has put up relatively decent rebounding numbers. But again I believe that McGee will lack those sufficient minutes to be a difference maker on the glass.

Last on the list and my personal pick to top the 6.8 rebounds per game mark that has been set is Zaza Pachulia. Pachulia is currently slated as the Mavs starting center and I don’t see any of our other options taking his place in the lineup there. Along with that, Pachulia is actually an underrated rebounder.

His numbers are certainly not eye-popping but part of that can be attributed to his lack of minutes on average. When Zaza has averaged over 22 minutes a game in a season he has only been under 6.8 rebounds on one occasion.

With the Mavericks current question mark from JaVale McGee, along with the scoring threat that Pachulia brings, I personally feel that we will be seeing Zaza averaging close to 25 minutes for the Mavericks this year which, in turn will bring his rebounding numbers above the 6.8 mark for the season.

Case for Under

Rami Michail

The Mavs went from having two great rebounders in their grasps to practically having none. I’m not too dissatisfied with the trio of Zaza, JaVale, and Sam, especially with what happened with DJ, but I can’t really see any of these three getting significant minutes to have huge rebounding numbers.

Zaza, in my opinion, is the most serviceable and reliable of the three, and if anyone eclipses that mark, it will be him. With that, he averaged 6.8 rebounds last year in 23.7 minutes of action. I’m not sure he gets that many more minutes right now.

After all, Dalembert was just getting 20.2 minutes in his first season in Dallas, and that was on a team that DESPERATELY needed his presence inside. During that season, Sam averaged 6.8 boards a game.

I may be one of the few excited about JaVale, but I still need to see how healthy he is before I can rely on him to rebound the ball for this team. And still, can’t see him getting big minutes to hit the over.

Dirk creates plenty of rebounding opportunities for his teammates…sadly…but, again, I can’t see any one of these bigs separating themselves from the others to get 27+ minutes.

What do you think?

Next: Must the Mavericks Make a Move for Markieff Morris?

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