Is trading the 10th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft a mistake for the Dallas Mavericks?

Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic
Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
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The case for the Dallas Mavericks trading the 10th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft

Draft picks are inherently risky. Top ten picks flame out of every draft, and there are varying degrees of hits. Look at the Mavericks' history with top-ten picks since 1990. Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Doncic were homeruns. Jason Kidd was a massive hit, but he asked out before reaching his peak. Jamal Mashburn and Jim Jackson were solid, but Samaki Walker, Doug Smith, and Dennis Smith Jr. were busts. There is no guarantee that the franchise gets it right this summer.

Iztok Franko did a deep dive on picks nine through 11 in the last ten years, and he found that 40 percent of the time the team drafts a starting-caliber player. That means 60 percent of the time that player is a bench contributor or busts completely.

The Dallas Mavericks desperately need talent and now. They cannot afford to wait three years for a player to develop, especially when there is no guarantee that the draft pick does. Dallas could trade the pick for someone ready to help now or they could move down a few spots and pick up an additional asset.

Trading the pick gives the Dallas Mavericks some safety and security. They can be sure that they improved their roster and added talent for the 2023-24 season if Dallas makes a trade.