Examining Dallas Mavericks lottery odds for the 2023 NBA Draft

The Dallas Mavericks made a dramatic change of course on Friday afternoon. They went from chasing tenth in the Western Conference and the final spot in the Play-In Tournament to tanking in hopes of keeping their draft pick. The Mavs owe their first-round pick to the Knicks if it falls 11 through 30 on draft night from the original Kristaps Porzingis trade. A win over the Bulls would have dropped Dallas to the 11th-worst record and significantly decreased their odds of keeping their pick.

The Mavs lost to Chicago, which eliminated them from playoff contention and forced the NBA to open an investigation into the team’s tanking. They lost to the Spurs on Sunday again resting their regulars. It has been a disastrous season for Dallas that could end by missing the playoffs and not having their pick.

With the regular season in the books, here is a look at the team’s lottery odds heading into the event on May 16. These are set, and the results will have a massive impact on the present and future of the franchise.

Examining Dallas Mavericks lottery odds for the 2023 NBA Draft

The Mavericks finished 38-44 to give them the tenth-worst record in the NBA. Here is a look at their odds of moving up on lottery night and holding onto their selection, according to Tankathon.

Odds to win the lottery: 3.0 percent

Odds to finish 2nd in the lottery: 3.3 percent

Odds to finish 3rd in the lottery: 3.6 percent

Odds to finish 4th in the lottery: 4.0 percent

Odds to finish 10th in the lottery: 65.9 percent

Odds to keep their pick: 79.8 percent

Odds Dallas send their 2023 first-round pick to Knicks: 20.2 percent

Odds Mavericks end up with top 4 pick: 13.9 percent

Odds Mavericks end up with top 3 pick: 9.9 percent

Odds Mavericks end up with top 2 pick: 6.3 percent

Dallas has a three percent shot of winning the lottery and having the right to draft Victor Wembanyama. If they would have dropped to the 11th worst record this season, the Mavericks would have had a less than nine percent chance to keep their selection.

The Dallas Mavericks have never had luck in the lottery. They have held or moved down in every one since it began in 1985, including slipping from first to fourth in 1993 and first to second in 1994. The Mavs also moved from third to fifth in 2018, which forced them to trade up to acquire Luka Doncic.

Will the franchise’s fortunes change this year? The Dallas Mavericks desperately need to add talent and improve their roster around superstar Luka Doncic. Having a top-four pick would do just that, but fans will be fretting that the Mavs lose their pick. It is certainly part of the franchise’s doomsday scenario that is still in play.

Hopefully, Dallas finally gets lucky in the lottery, and stay tuned for all the latest.