Dallas Mavericks complete 2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The Dallas Mavericks have arguably the most riding on Tuesday’s 2023 NBA Draft Lottery. They tanked their final two regular season games and accepted a $750,000 fine to try to hold onto their pick. They owe it to the Knicks from the Kristaps Porzingis trade with a top-ten protection. Dallas needs to improve their roster, and that becomes much more difficult without a premium draft choice.

If the Mavericks move back even one spot, the Knicks get the pick. It is a cruel twist of fate that it is New York after the Knicks stole Jalen Brunson last summer. Brunson’s departure kicked off the Mavs spiral for Western Conference Finalist to missing the playoffs entirely, and fans know Dallas does not want to give them a lottery pick.

The Mavericks can select in the top four, tenth, or not at all in the 2023 NBA Draft. Fans will find out on Tuesday night, and here is a look at the odds of each scenario.

Dallas Mavericks complete 2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds

Odds of landing the #1 pick: 3.0 percent

Odds of landing the #2 pick: 3.3 percent

Odds of landing the #3 pick: 3.6 percent

Odds of landing the #4 pick: 4.0 percent

Odds of selecting in the top 4: 13.9 percent

Odds of selection 10th overall: 65.9 percent

Odds of keeping their pick: 79.8 percent

Odds of Mavericks losing pick to New York: 20.2 percent

The NBA will choose the top four picks on Tuesday evening with the remaining selections slotting in the inverse order of their regular season record. There is a fantastic explainer here for fans wanting more information on how the process works.

Things will get wild on Tuesday night. The Dallas Mavericks could walk away with the number one overall pick and the right to select Victor Wembanyama or not have a selection at all. General manager and president of basketball operations Nico Harrison will represent the Mavs on the stage with VP of basketball operations Michael Finley in the drawing room.

Will the duo bring the Mavs some much-needed luck? Cynt Marshall was on the stage in 2019, but Dallas did not move up, and their pick went to the Hawks from the Luka Doncic trade. Finley was on the stage in 2018 when the Mavericks slipped from third to fifth and had to trade back up on draft night to get Luka.

The Dallas Mavericks have never moved up in the NBA Draft Lottery since it started in 1985, including twice having the worst record and falling out of the number one pick. They have some of the worst lottery luck, but will that change on Tuesday night? Tune in to find out.