Is a top 10 draft pick enough to get Mavericks back to playoffs in 2024?

Rookies rarely help contenders: Dallas Mavericks should remember that

There is a ton of talent in the 2023 draft class. Victor Wembanyama is a generational prospect that could quickly make an impact on any team. Scoot Henderson would be the number one pick in a lot of other drafts, and they are far from the only two talented prospects. Even in a deep class, rookies rarely help contenders, though.

Looking at the 2022 draft class, exactly nine players have a positive value over replacement player (VORP) heading into the final days of the regular season. Two of those players have played less than 1,000 minutes. Keegan Murray and Paolo Banchero are the only two top-ten picks with a positive VORP.

Talent takes time to develop. The Dallas Mavericks should not count on any top-ten pick coming out and being a starter or massive part of their rotation next season. They should be looking for someone that can blossom into a star during his rookie contract. He does not have to be lights out as a rookie to be fantastic next to Luka Doncic for years to come.

The Mavericks must keep their 2023 first-round draft pick for what it does for the franchise long-term, not next season.