Mavericks’ risky Kyrie Irving gamble makes his free agency decision crystal clear

With just one day to go until the NBA Draft and the official selection of consensus No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg for the Dallas Mavericks, Kyrie Irving is on the eve of his $43 million player option deadline, as Irving has until midnight tonight if he wants to opt out and try to sign a new deal with the Mavericks in free agency or opt in to the last season of his current deal.

While there's been encouraging signs from both the Mavericks and Irving that they want to renew their partnership this summer, Irving's market value has gone down some after tearing his ACL on March 3, and ESPN's Shams Charania recently reported on "The Stephen A. Smith Show" that Irving and the Mavericks haven't come to terms on a new contract yet, as Dallas hasn't made any offers to Irving at $40 million annually or above.

$40 million has been the ballpark amount that many fans and analysts have projected Irving to get this summer, and while it makes sense for the Mavericks to try and negotiate with Irving given his torn ACL, they have no leverage if he gets unhappy with the front office and demands a sign-and-trade, as Dallas can't afford to lose their second (possibly first) best player for absolutely nothing following the Luka Doncic disaster.

Mavericks' low-ball offers could force Irving to opt in to player option

Given the mutual interest from both sides to make a deal work and Irving needing to rehab next season, it'd be extremely unlikely Irving gets so disgruntled to the point that he demands out of Dallas this summer, but crazier things have happened. The most likely scenario for Irving, if he and the Mavericks can't reach an agreement on a new deal, would be for Irving to opt in to the last season of his player option, per Charania.

This would give Irving the flexibility to seek other options in 2026 free agency if his return to play doesn't go well this season or the Mavericks aren't as good as expected, and he could still reach a contract extension with Dallas after opting in to the last season of this deal if he's still fully bought in on reaching a multi-year deal with the Mavericks this summer.

Whatever Irving's line of thinking is here, the Mavericks need to do their best to reach a deal with him before this opt-in deadline tonight, or they need to have a plan in place to extend him if he exercises his player option tonight, as the Mavericks would be playing with their food if they let Irving enter unrestricted free agency this summer or next.

Charania reported Irving may have been onboard to make $50-$60 million annually this summer had he not torn his ACL, so while the Mavericks are smart to offer Irving less than the amount his player option is, it'd be in their best interest to give Irving his flowers for what he's done for the franchise and give him an offer that is at least close to the $40 million annual mark, as the Mavericks can't afford to low-ball him and lose both of the superstars that took them to the Finals just a year ago.